Trisura Group Ltd.

Good morning. Welcome to Treshearer Group Limited's third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. On the call today are David Clare, Chief Executive Officer, and David Scotland, Chief Financial Officer. David Clare will begin by providing a business and strategic update, followed by David Scotland, who will discuss financial results for the period. Following formal comments, lines will be open for analyst questions. I'd like to remind participants that in today's comments, including in responding to questions and in discussing new initiatives related to financial and operating performance, forward-looking statements may be made, including forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian and U.S. securities law. These statements reflect predictions of future events and trends and do not relate to historic events. They're subject to known and unknown risks, and future events and results may differ materially from such statements. For further information on these risks and their potential impacts, please see Treshearer's filings with the securities regulators. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. To ask a question during the question and answer session, you will need to press star 1-1 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 1-1 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. Thank you. I'll now turn the call over to David Clare.

Thank you, Operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome. Treshearer continued its track record of performance in Q3. Insurance revenue grew 11% and reported a 19% offer in return on equity. Growth, strong earnings, and increased investment income lifted book value to almost $750 million, a 24% increase over Q3 2023. In Treshearer's specialty, we saw particular strength in our share-it practice, the benefit of new distribution relationships in the US, and an exciting proof point of the potential of this platform. We continue to invest in the expansion of our recently acquired treasury listed companies and anticipate the benefit of these investments to grow in the coming years. Canadian fronting grew as a more mature platform and continued growth existing relationships drove top line. We observed slower, although continued growth and warranty as expanded programs and an improving auto environment sustained premium. As highlighted last quarter, corporate insurance is experiencing balancing market conditions in Canada, and we remain committed to responsibly growing our existing book. We are excited about the potential of US corporate insurance expansion to accelerate growth. Growth in specialty was complemented by consistently profitable underwriting with a loss ratio of just below 19%. It lines expectations and impacted slightly by changes in discount rates in the quarter. We continue to experience a slightly higher expense ratio as a result of startup costs associated with US practices and proportionally more premiums generated through fronted structures. Underwriting disciplines drove a strong combined ratio of 85.6%, albeit higher than a striking comparative year. The combination of growing and profitable underwriting and enhanced investment income, which grew 45%, supported a 3% increase in operating net income and a 25% operating return on equity. US program insurance revenue grew 7% to $546 million due to maturation of existing programs and premiums. The amount of revenue programs earlier in the year was fully experienced in quarter. Excluding the impact of non-renewals, our core portfolio continued to grow in excess of 20%. Combined with a healthy pipeline of opportunities and continued momentum in the access and surplus and program's markets, we expect a return to quarterly growth later next year. Admitted capabilities continue to grow, and we generated $126 million in admitted insurance revenue in the quarter. Operating loss ratio and fronting operational ratio rose to 75% and 87% respectively. A slightly higher loss ratio and a higher program retention drove the increase. We observed some impact from discounting on the loss ratio in the quarter, but also normal quarterly claims volatility. We reiterate our target of a low 80s fronting operational ratio in the medium term, but I should note that as we increase retention, fronting operational ratio may increase despite consistent expectations for profitability. Growth and an increase in investment income contributed to a 12% increase in operating net income and supported a 15% operating ROE. We have seen healthy pricing trends across most lines and continue to expect harboring trends in certain lines to balance, although not reverse in the year. This will be informed by the state of the reinsurance market as well as economic and interest rate trends, and we feel well equipped to navigate this environment. We have navigated reinsurance renewals consistently this year, and our pipeline of programs under consideration continues to grow. Consolidated net investment income grew 20% as a result of a larger portfolio. We maintain a more defensive and higher quality portfolio than almost any time in our history. We have continued to extend duration, redeploying short duration securities and cash into longer duration insurance. We expect relatively consistent levels of investment income for the coming quarters as operating cash normalizes offset by growth in the underlying portfolio. We are encouraged to see strong growth in US surety with $36 million in premium written in the quarter as our relationships expanded. We continue the process of expanding licenses and rate filings for both US surety and US corporate insurance. We remain committed to specialized underwriting as well as conservative reserving. We are planning for growth and with the capital base approaching $750 million in greater scale, we feel optimistic for the year ahead. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to David Scott for a more detailed review of financial results.

Thanks, David. I'll now provide a walkthrough of financial results for the quarter. Consolidated ROE on a rolling 12 month basis was .7% at Q3 2024, which improved over the prior year due to improved profitability from US programs and demonstrates a return to our mid team target, despite the impact of the runoff program in 2023. Operating ROE was 19%, exceeding our mid team's target. Insurance revenue was $807 million for the quarter and $2.3 billion year to date, reflecting growth of 10% and 14% respectively over the prior year. The operating combined ratio of Treshearer's specialty was strong at 85% for the quarter and 85% for the year to date period. This is greater than the prior year as a result of an exceptionally low loss ratio in 2023 and a higher expense ratio in 2024, with a higher expense ratio being driven by startup costs associated with US corporate insurance and a shift in the business mix towards fronting. For US programs, the fronting operational ratio adjusted for core operations was 87% for the quarter and 85% for the year to date period as a result of a higher operating loss ratio in Q3 and increase in retained business for the year to date period, which generated a higher FOR as well as continued investment in internal infrastructure. Operating insurance service result in Treshearer's specialty for the quarter was lower than the prior year as a result of a higher loss ratio, though this is in comparison to an exceptionally low loss ratio in 2023, as well as higher costs associated with the startup of US corporate insurance. Operating insurance service result was greater for the year to date period as a result of growth in the business and continued strong underwriting profitability. Operating insurance service result for US programs for the quarter and year to date period was greater than the prior year, primarily as a result of growth in the business. Net investment income for the quarter of $16 million increased by 20% over the prior year and 40% year to date as a result of an increase in the size of the investment portfolio, but also benefited from higher risk-adjusted yields. Net gains from investments were particularly strong with $11 million for the quarter and $24 million for the year to date period, primarily as a result of unrealized gains on equity and fixed income investments held under a value-through profit loss under IFRS 9. Other operating expense, excluding the impact of share-based compensation, which is medicated through a hedging program, increased by 10% for the quarter and 21% for the year to date period, reflecting growth in the business. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 24% and 25% for the year to date period, reflecting the composition of taxable income between Canada and the US. Overall, net income for the group was $36 million for the quarter and $100 million year to date. Operating net income, which adjusts for certain items to reflect income from core operations and excludes the impact of non-recurring items, was $33 million for the quarter and $98 million year to date, which was greater than the prior year for both periods as a result of growth in the business, continued strong underwriting performance in Canada, growing profitable business in US programs, and growth in net investment income. Hearnings for share was $0.74 in the quarter and $2.05 for the year to date period, which is greater than the prior year as a result of growth in the business, higher net gains, higher net investment income, and the impact of the runoff in 2023. Operating EPS, which reflects core operations and excludes the impact of non-recurring items and unrealized gains, was $0.68 for the quarter and $2.01 year to date, reflecting growth of .5% and .7% respectively over the prior year. Compared to the prior year, growth is muted as a result of an exceptionally low loss ratio at Trashara Specialty in 2023, particularly in Q3, as well as the impact of a higher number of shares outstanding in 2024. EPS contributed to a 24% increase in book value per share over the prior year, resulting in a book value per share of $15.64 at September 30, 2024. Book value per share also increased as a result of unrealized gains on the investment portfolio and foreign exchange gains. Equity at September 30 was $747 million and is greater than the prior year end as a result of positive net income for the period, as well as unrealized gains on the investment portfolio and an increase in value of the US dollar. As at September 30, debt to capital ratio was 11.6%, which is greater than December 31, 2023, as a result of some additional borrowing from the revolving credit facility in the period. The company remains well capitalized and we expect to have sufficient capital to meet our regulatory capital requirements. David, I'll now turn things back over to you.

Thank you. Operator, we now take questions.

As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 1-1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 1-1 again. Our first question comes from Nick Preet with CIBC Capital Markets.

Okay, thanks. So, we're starting to see great traction in US surety. Can you talk a little bit about the build out of US corporate insurance lines, why that initiative has been a little bit slower to ramp, and maybe what needs to be done in order to see that business start becoming more productive from a premium standpoint next year?

Yeah, thanks, Nick. And I would like to say, first off, we are incredibly excited to see the momentum in US surety. I think that's the result of quite a few years of investment and shows some of the potential of that platform. On US corporate insurance, I would say we're at a very similar spot to where we were in US surety back in 2021.

So, this

is a practice that is going through the process of ramping up or acquiring its regulatory licenses and infrastructure to operate the business. So, our US corporate insurance practice right now is building out both its people and its processes to be able to go to market. That includes things like filing rates and forms across all states in the US for a number of products that we want to write. So, a bit of the difference here between US surety and US corporate insurance is there's a few more products and a few more licenses and rate filings that we need to get through before we see that contribution to premiums. Now, that being said, we think the opportunity is pretty significant here in US corporate insurance and would expect to start to see some of that premium coming online later next year. We'll definitely keep you updated as we see progress there, but I don't think any surprise that that process or that initiative is a little bit slower to ramp up at this stage.

Okay, and will you eventually need to push capital down to the US corporate insurance vehicle like you did with US surety? And if so, is that something that could be funded internally? Yeah,

I wouldn't expect a separate or distinct capital need for US corporate insurance. I would expect anything that we build out for that practice would be internally funded either through capital available on our balance sheets that already exist in the US or some of our levers that we can pull across our organization.

Got it. And I don't know if you'd know this offhand, but how much of an earnings drag is the build out of US surety and corporate insurance lines currently contributing in the quarter? Do you know roughly speaking?

Yeah, I could give you a rough estimate, although this wouldn't be perfectly accurate. There's probably a couple points of drag on a combined ratio basis from both those initiatives through the year. We can maybe connect offline to see if there's more accurate figures we can give you, but my sense right now is it's a couple points.

Yeah, okay. Fair enough. I'll turn it over. Thank you.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from Doug Young with Desjardin Capital Markets.

Hi, good morning. Just maybe a day back to the surety expansion in the US. The $36 million gross written premiums, obviously I think that's ahead of schedule. I think you're $60 million year to date. Can you flesh out a little bit more what drove that? I think you've mentioned in the past when that business gets to $45 to $60 million of premiums that you would hope the combined ratio would be approaching 100%. I don't know if we're there yet, but just hoping to get a little bit of context around that. Are we there yet? Are we getting close to that? Because it seems like you're building scale faster than maybe you anticipated.

Yes. So on the first question, Doug, we were successful maybe differently this quarter than some other quarters in bringing on some larger distribution relationships. That brought on an increase in the premium in the quarter. So this is really a combination of three years of building out our presence in the US market as well as a unique win on relationships in that US space that drove a higher premium production in quarter. So both of those we're very happy to see. I think we've been very open as we've talked about this. This quarter is probably a little bit higher for US surety production than we'd expect in every quarter, but I think shows some of the momentum that we can have in this platform. On the second point around combined ratio and breakeven, we're getting a lot closer to that. I would say that from a contribution perspective that you're exactly right. That premium level that we're hitting is exactly the range that we wanted to see to be moving through that breakeven target. And so as we see that crested or approached now from a premium perspective, I'd expect that earnings profile as we earn through the next year to start being a little bit more contributory.

Is that about a year ahead of plan or you vote on plan?

No, I would say very ultimately that is ahead of plan. We were probably hoping to be at somewhere like this level next year or towards the end of next year.

Okay, and then Canadian resolutions look good. You talked a bit about the auto side. Can you maybe flush out a little bit what you're seeing in that market? Is it just the auto sales turning around? Are you seeing any claims pressure, the competitive environment there if you can maybe talk a bit about that?

Yeah, we had some wins in earlier quarters in that resolution warranty practice which has driven a few more programs, a bit of an expansion of market share. That's come at the same time that we've seen some increase or normalization in auto purchasing activity. So both of those are positive sort of trends that are driving a little bit better earnings in that platform as well as some better base premium. We haven't seen any material change in claims from that practice. So it's I would say really just being driven by growth and normalized operations there. I would say we're still not seeing normal levels of auto sales but it's a lot better than it has been in recent years.

Okay, and then can you flush out a little bit more detail on the exited lines in the US, the 5.2 million claims pressure maybe just for everyone in the car? Like what this related to and what we should be expecting from this? Is this kind of an unusual item? Maybe a little bit more detail on that.

Yeah, so we've talked very openly in the last few years about stepping away from our non renewing programs that we just don't feel are in our risk appetite anymore as well as some smaller programs that maybe didn't reach scale. So this would be in that first category of programs that were no longer in our risk appetite. And so what you see here in claims from exited programs is a couple examples of programs that were non renewed last year that had some exposure. Okay. Or

we really

don't feel it's indicative of the ongoing or predictive earnings of the business. So that's really the rationale here that we've got to peel it out or to separate it out for our investors is this is very clearly business that we're no longer in. You can see essentially why we're no longer in it with the claims experience that we've had this quarter. And that exit in line business, I would not expect to be something that we see every quarter, right? Given the short tail of these programs, you don't have a long run off process. But what we wanted to do this quarter is be able to segment in between what we saw as kind of ongoing business and business we're no longer in.

Okay. And then just lastly, David, David, you mentioned, I think, around US fronting like further investments in infrastructure is one of the reasons expense ratio or the core ratio is a little bit higher. Can you kind of flesh out what you're investing in in the US fronting side? Is this more technology? Is this more interaction with the MGA, the reinsurance or oversight? Maybe a little more detail would be helpful. Yeah,

so that comment reflects a lot of sort of people and process investment and a lot of it is stuff that's been going on over I would say the last 12 months. But we do highlight it just because when we see particularly year to date versus year to date of the prior year, we do have some additional costs in there, largely on sort of the risk finance, a lot of those kind of internal processes that have been built out over the last year. So that is what that is in reference to, actuarial to some extent as well.

I would say just to add on to David, aside from some of those investments, we are seeing some systems investments, Doug. As the business is getting larger, you're investing in some systems to better manage and more efficiently manage the expected growth in the platform going forward. So the combination of both of those, we've had some systems purchased this year that are now being integrated. So that's part of the lift as well.

Appreciate the color. Thank you.

Our next question comes from Tom McKinnon with BMO Capital.

Yeah, thanks. Good morning. Question just really about as you just build size here, as your total book value gets, you know, probably in past, you know, a threshold here in the US 500 million or something. How would that be in US dollars? Does that kind of help you in terms of being able to attract new distribution or be able to write bigger programs or be able to, how does that help you? Because generally, I think as you get bigger there, there's, you might be recategorized. Maybe you can flesh that out for us. Thanks.

Yeah, thanks, Tom. That's a good memory because you're absolutely right. We're now through that threshold of US 500 million dollars in capital and the impact of that is we would expect to be moved up a size category from the AMS perspective. That does, as you say, give us better access to some of the partners that we have across the US. It gives us a better differentiation from a competitive standpoint. There are not many entities in our space with balance sheets of that size and scale. And it gives counterparties more confidence to come work with us. So it is a significant milestone. I think you'll recall a few years ago, we were very happy to be passing through the US 250 million dollar market equity. This is a big jump up to get to what would be a size 10. So all of those items we think help the platform, both from a reputation perspective, but also just from a categorization perspective. As our balance sheet gets bigger, it also gives us more flexibility in how we consider structures across our programs business. So you can think about some of the retention trends we've seen where we have profitable programs, strong partnerships. You could see us considering what the right level of retention is with more flexibility. So all of this from a trend perspective is very, very positive for the entity. As you know, scale matters a lot in the insurance industry. And we've talked a lot about our targets and our intention to increase our book equity across the organization. So it's not only impactful in the US program space, this helps us in Canada as well. As we think about our practice, we've got a very profitable business in our Canadian and our tertiary specialty lines. This allows us to be more flexible as we talk about retention and structure in our business everywhere.

Okay, thanks. And just in terms of items that you've deemed to be non-operating, we've had two quarters in a row now of items that are non-operating that one could argue is sort of normal courses being an insurer. I mean, you always exit businesses, but you will have claims from those. That's happened in this quarter. And then you are always changing reinsurance structures and additional startup costs. And that was a below the line item in the second quarter. So I agree that it's necessary to flag those things out. But just going through the discussions you have internally as to why you make the decision that these are purely one-offs and you just put them below the line.

Yeah, I think it's a good question, Tom. And philosophically, what we're attempting to do is demonstrate to our investors what the core and predictive set of earnings are for this business. We've talked very ultimately, if we speak about that first item, that claims from exited lines. We've talked very openly about the types of business lines we want to be in going forward and types of business lines where we're exiting. My view and certainly our management team's view is that as we curate our portfolio for the types of businesses we'd expect to be in in the long term, that outsize claims experience from lines we are no longer in, especially lines that are no longer right in premium, we believe should be highlighted as a separate item. And that's very much the rationale here we have on our US programs business. The short-tail nature of this really informs part of this posture. If this was a program that ran out over three to five years, I can very much appreciate your comment. But given it's a property program, I would not expect you to have some ongoing set of degradation or experience that is comparable to this. I would highlight reinsurance structure changes, which you're referencing in the second quarter. That's not something that I would characterize as common or something that happens all the time. Certainly we renew our treaties every year, but the type of structure change we're referencing in Q2 was more an evolution of Treshearer from a smaller entity to a larger participant in the spaces that we're talking about in that Canadian front line. That shift is one that I wouldn't expect to be happening annually or even every few years. And very much we thought that was appropriate to move through. It's worth noting, Tom, we're not just simply backing out things that are negative. We backed out a million dollars of positive impact in the quarter, this quarter in Canada from a commission adjustment that went in our favor. So you're seeing an attempt to demonstrate to our investors and to our team that very much there's a core set of earnings here that is predicted with the long-term potential of this platform. And we're going to try and be pretty strict in what comes into and out of that.

Okay, understood. Thanks.

Our next question comes from James Loing with National Bank Financial.

Yeah, thanks. Just don't want to beat this to death here, but just wanted to make sure I understood the commentary correctly. The Exited Lines claims experience that won't recur in Q4 or should we expect to see some level of claims repeated in Q4, but maybe not beyond that? And then tied to that, are you able to give us a sense as to what level of premiums written is tied to these Exited Lines?

Yeah, so on the first question, James, it's tough for me to comment directly. I haven't seen anything from those Exited Lines in the part of Q4 that we've been through at this stage. And obviously the exposure is declining in those lines. So at this stage, I certainly wouldn't expect to see something like that, but it's always tough to be representative until you're through the quarter. The reason it's backed out is obviously because we don't believe it is recurring or should be expected to continue. So I know that's not a perfect answer for you, but that's certainly how I've been doing it from my side. I'm not anticipating some continued experience from this. This is not like a runoff program that you saw through 2023. This is a much more unique scenario. From an Exited Lines perspective, certainly no premiums being written or produced on those lines this year. If you talk about sort of non-renewed programs, I think what you're probably getting at is what's the level of growth in the portfolio, including those programs and how much of our top line has been non-renewed. It's tough for me to give an exact number on that because it depends a little bit on the period that you're looking at. But the core portfolio that we have, if you look at the premium production of that entity that is ongoing program, that's growing at about 20%, which you can see catching up to the top line of years past when you look at a GPW figure that's about 7% down quarter over quarter, despite having some non-renewed programs in the business. So we may be able to give you a bit more accurate estimate if we look into that a little bit offline. But I would say from my perspective, what's very encouraging to see is that core portfolio programs we'd anticipate continuing on with us is continuing to grow very well. And that's something that I think is informing some reviews of where growth comes from in the next year.

Okay. Okay. And then just making sure I heard correctly, I'm getting static on my end. It's probably just me. But you said that there was no premiums tied to those exited lines in 2024. And so that organic growth rate would start to flow through in Q1 25, I guess, as we're laughing, as we're laughing sort of apples to apples comparisons.

So I apologize, Jamie, cut out, but it sounds like the first question was confirming that no premium was associated with those exit line programs in the quarter. And I can confirm that. I didn't catch your second question.

Sorry, I was just confirming if it was in all of 2024 or just Q3. And I guess when would we expect the organic growth to start lapping apples to apples comparisons?

Okay, great, great question. So there was some premium from non-remove programs in the first half of this year. So you saw that in Q1 and Q2. Q3 was the first quarter where they had sort of quarter operating without any premium from those programs that have been non-remove. So that's why you see that the more significant impact this quarter, I would say you're probably going to see that lapping impact. My estimate would probably be in the second half of next year, you've got a Q1 and Q2 in 2025 is going to compare some quarters that have that premium in 2024. But then I would expect that to be laughing better comparisons in the second half next year.

Yeah, understood. And then shifting to the Canadian front end business, growth there a little bit slower than what we've seen historically. Is there any sort of timing going on? Is there a shift in the marketplace demand from global reinsurers? Maybe just talk through a little bit more of what was going on in the quarter in the Canadian front end business.

I wouldn't say we saw anything trend setting in the quarter. We've seen pretty strong growth in Q2 and in Canadian front end. We saw a little bit comparatively different growth in Q3, but still very positive growth in both quarters and very strong in a year to date basis. Trend wise, we're still seeing good momentum with partners, good appetite from those partners to continue writing premium in the Canadian space. So I think this is a little bit just normal quarterly volatility in a larger book of business in that front end practice. Nothing that I would say is changing our trajectory in that group. Okay, that's good. Thank you.

That concludes today's question and answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to David Claire for closing remarks.

Thank you very much, operator. Thank you everyone for joining. We're conscious today is a busy day from a reporting perspective, so certainly don't hesitate to reach out to us if you have any further questions. Thank you.

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.