Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd.

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure LTD Q3 2024 Financial Results Conference Call. At this time, all lines are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. If at any time during this call you require immediate assistance, please press the star 0 for the operator. This call is being recorded on Thursday, November 14, 2024. I would now like to turn the conference over to Michael Grasher, Manager of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, operator, and welcome everyone to Tidewater Midstream's third quarter 2024 results conference call. I'm Michael Grasher, Manager of Investor Relations, and joining me today are Jeremy Baines, CEO, and Aaron Ames, Tidewater Midstream's interim CFO. Also with us and available during the question and answer session is Sean Heaney, EVP, Planning and Strategy. Before we begin, please note that matters discussed on this call include forward-looking statements under applicable securities laws with respect to Tidewater Midstream and infrastructure LPD, including but not limited to statements regarding investments and acquisitions by the company, commercial arrangements of the company, the business strategies and operational activities of the company, the markets and industries in which the company operates, cost and expense management, the company's leverage and plans for debt and leverage reduction, financing of the company's indebtedness, the value of the company's assets, and the future growth objectives, targets, and financial and operating performance of the company and its businesses. Such statements are based on factors and assumptions that management believes are reasonable at the time they were made and information currently available. Forward-looking statements we may express or imply today are subject to risk and certainties, which can cause the actual results to differ from expectations. Further, some of the information provided refers to non-GAAP measures. To learn more about these forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures, please see Tidewater Midstream's financial reports, which are available at www.tidewatermidstream.com and on CDAR. And with that, I will now pass the call over to Jeremy to go over the highlights of the quarter.

Thanks, Michael, and thanks to everyone for joining us today. I would like to start the call with an operational update for our downstream division, followed by an update on the transaction we completed during Q3 between Tidewater Midstream and Tidewater Renewables. And I will conclude with a midstream update and my plans for the business. From an operational perspective, our Prince George Refinery and HDRD facilities continue to operate very well. At PGR, we average throughput of 11,664 barrels per day, which was 9% lower than the prior year, primarily due to a third-party outage during the quarter, which decreased volume of crude feedstock entering the facility. At HDRD, we averaged throughput of 2,849 barrels per day during the quarter, which was consistent with the previous quarter. During the third quarter, crack spreads averaged approximately $84 per barrel, which was lower than in the third quarter of 2023, which averaged $87 per barrel. So far, the start of Q4 has seen crack spreads averaging in the $75 to $80 per barrel range. In November, our contracted offtake agreement with Synovus ended and we have successfully transitioned to marketing our refined products in-house. Tidewater has entered into agreements with purchasers in respect of the sale of the vast majority of its diesel and gasoline volumes produced at the PGR and HDRD for the remainder of 2024 and is in the process of marketing its diesel and gasoline volumes for 2025. Current market discounts are wider than those at the time the Synovus offtake agreement was entered into, largely stemming from the oversupply of imported diesel in Western Canada. These wider discounts are expected to yield lower margins until the government addresses the unfair trade environment. We continue to engage in discussions with the government of British Columbia and the federal government to encourage them to implement changes that level the playing field with renewable and biodiesel producers in the U.S., who continue to take advantage of subsidies in both the US and Canada and are flooding the Canadian market with renewable diesel. This is impacting not only the BCLCFS credit prices, but also putting pressure on fuel prices. Tidewater Renewables has also engaged the External Trade Law Council for the purposes of advising on and preparing a trade remedy complaint against renewable diesel imports from the US that management believes are unfairly priced and having a significant negative impact on the competitiveness of our domestic operations. Based on available information and advice, management believes that a trade case against renewable diesel imports from the US has a reasonably high likelihood of success. Filing of a complaint may occur before the close of 2024, and if a government investigation initiates and concludes that unfairly traded imports are harming Canadian production, duty relief would then be available in 2025. I will now provide an update on the related party transaction we completed during the third quarter between Tidewater Midstream and Tidewater Renewables. As a reminder, during the first and second quarters of 2024, Tidewater Renewables forward sold BC LCFS credits at an average price of approximately $450 per credit to various counterparties. As we exited the second quarter, it became apparent that subsidized U.S. product was going to have an impact on Canadian low-carbon fuel credit prices. The BC credit market is proving to be an attractive outlet for U.S. producers of renewable fuel who are able to take advantage of U.S. subsidies and earn Canadian compliance credits. The importation of substantial volumes of subsidized U.S. renewable diesel into BC has significantly reduced the demand by BC LCFS obligated parties for compliance credits. The result has been that Tidewater Renewables was unable to economically contract BC LCFS credit sales for the third quarter of 2024. The inability to generate any credit-based revenue would have had significant negative implications for Tidewater Renewables' underlying business and liquidity. To remedy the liquidity issue at Tidewater Renewables, Tidewater Ministry acquired various assets from Tidewater Renewables. In addition, Tidewater Midstream and Tidewater Renewables entered into an agreement for the purchase and sale of credits under which Tidewater Midstream agreed to purchase BCLCFS credits from Tidewater Renewables. Tidewater Renewables used the proceeds of these transactions to repay its first lien debt and established a contracted purchaser for the BCLCFS commission credits it produces. On the midstream side of the business, the Brezzo River Complex operated very well following the Q2 turnaround. As a result of lower producer volumes due to lower AECO natural gas pricing, the facility averaged 124 million cubic feet a day compared to 154 million cubic feet per day in the same period last year. This was partially offset by higher throughput at our straddle plant. Our Ram River gas processing facility averaged throughput of 31 million cubic feet per day in the third quarter of 2024 compared to 110 million cubic feet per day in the third quarter of 2023. Gas processing activities at the Ram River gas plant has been temporarily curtailed due to producers shutting in their volumes as a result of depressed natural gas prices. Natural gas prices are expected to recover during 2025 and gas processing operations are expected to resume as producer activity restarts. Sulfur handling activities continue to be operational. Overall, as a result of these short-term headwinds, we will stay laser focused on safe, efficient, and reliable operations while maintaining liquidity and protecting the balance sheet by reducing costs and capital spending. Longer term, I am bullish on the output for natural gas. Natural gas will be critical in the transition to lower carbon energy generation and to meet the energy demands of the world, especially in our data-intensive future. I will now turn the call over to Aaron to go through the financial results and our revised outlook.

Thank you, Jeremy. During Q3 2024, consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $29.2 million, of which $13.6 million was contributed by Tidewater Renewables. During the same quarter last year, consolidated adjusted EBITDA was $37.5 million pro forma for the Pipestone and Dimmesdale divestiture, of which $14.5 million was from Tidewater Renewables. The year-over-year decrease was primarily driven by lower diesel and gasoline pricing and lower throughput volumes at our midstream operations, due to producer shut-ins resulting from low eco natural gas prices. I'd like to turn to our expectation for the year. As a result of the above, with respect to guidance, we now expect to come in at the low end of our previously issued consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2024 of 130 to 150 million. We are also revising our full year 2024 consolidated maintenance capital forecast, which is now expected to be in the range of 25 to 30 million down from previous guidance of 35 to 40 million. As a result, the combined revisions have a net positive impact on anticipated free cash flow. I'll now ask the operator to open the call up for questions.

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press the star followed by the number one on your cell phone keypad. If you are using a speaker phone, please pick up your handset before pressing any keys. To withdraw your question, please press the star followed by the number two. Once again, please press the star one to join the queue. And your first question comes from the line of Rob Hope with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Afternoon, everyone. First question is on capital allocation. The MD&A talks about how Tidewater Renewables may have some issues that go in concern if the LCFS credit market issue is not rectified. When you take a look at tidewater midstream proper, how does that color your allocation of capital and the relationship between the two entities moving forward? Yeah, I don't think anything changes.

Our strategy at tidewater midstream continues. We'll continue to run our refineries well. Our refinery will continue to manage our midstream assets. In the longer term, we do expect that the government will make a solution on the policy side that is supportive of renewables. We're also going into peak winter season here. Plants are all running very well. 2025 will start a new compliance year for LCFS. And we are starting to see markets in the US around California credits and RINs tighten up. So nothing changes other than we continue to optimize the assets and run as efficiently as we can.

All right, thanks for that. And then looking at the asset base, you know, any thoughts on potentially further asset sales or monetizations, you know, Could we see you increase your focus on the refineries side of the business and potentially monetize some additional gas midstream assets here?

We don't comment on those things, hopefully. All right. Thank you.

And your next question comes from the line at Maurice Choi with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I just wanted to touch on the... initiatives that you have with the government. Have you had any indication from the new BC government since the election concluded to suggest that it might take up any of the regulatory or subsidy changes for imported diesel or renewable diesel imports?

Since we started having discussions with them, they've been very supportive. They have Clearly, the NDP government in British Columbia, LCFS is a keystone policy of theirs. They've been supportive of our assets and they continue to have discussions and would like to see a solution that levels the playing field, protects the good paying jobs in British Columbia and allows them to have a high-tech renewable fuels industry in British Columbia. So everything has been supportive. Obviously, they've been In an election campaign, the new government is being formed. They're determining their cabinet. But we continue to have discussions with them and believe government will be supportive.

Makes sense. Maybe that is obviously the plan A here in terms of approach. Can you speak to what the plan B is for tight water midstream? You obviously know what the plan B could be for renewables, but what is it for midstream?

I'm not quite sure what you're asking. Meaning if you don't get this regulatory changes or subsidy from the government, what alternatives do you have? I mean, the reality is watching the U.S.

market, seeing how it tightens up, there's continued desire within society to see that reductions in carbon goes forward. At this point in time, we've got an unlevel playing field. where we've got subsidized and dumped product coming into our market, making it a very tough market. We expect that will get fixed, and we're continuing to work down that path and continue to be optimistic that a fix will happen.

Understood.

If we could just finish up with a question on your maintenance capex position to mend it lower. Is it...

matter of moving some of the work to next year or can we view this as being more of a new norm for the business i mean each year is different because some years you have you have turnarounds and things like that so you know we're not yet giving guidance on on next year and that'll be part of our you know part of our future um you know calls uh but but right now that this is what the guidance that we're giving for the for this year and You know, the year's almost done, so we're able to update it based on what we can see today.

So, if it's just for the guidance for this year, is it a matter of the cost coming lower than the anticipated or just optimizing the work activity?

I think, you know, we're always looking to optimize our work activities, and so that's what's being reflected here. And as I said, for next year, you know, we'll revisit that as we, you know, as we progress.

through to next year. Thank you.

And your next question comes from the line of Patrick Kenny with National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good morning. Just looking at the combined production here at PGR and HDRD, can you remind us how much of the 15,000 barrels a day product is or can be soaked up by the local northern BC market and how much of it needs to compete head on with some US volumes coming into the lower mainland or might need to be exported outside the province and I guess which markets you might be looking at as a short-term solution or mitigation plan.

Thanks for the question. Today, the vast, vast majority of this market is being, or products being sold in British Columbia. We've always historically, we look at where our best netbacks are. And at times we've sold into Alberta, at times we've sold into lower mainland, at times we've sold into the US, but we're continuing to be able to place this market product within those markets. And it's really a matter of price. That's the challenge.

And I guess just thinking about your hedging policy going forward, I'm wondering if that's changed at all, or maybe you could just update us on how you're thinking about maybe a rolling six-month or 12-month hedging policy.

Yeah, I mean, typically for us, given that both sides, you'd have to be able to hedge your product as well as your input cost. And since there really isn't the perfect hedge, in BC, it's something we think about and we do a small amount of hedging, but really we don't do it in a very big way, given that there's not really a good match of those two, the input cost and the output cost. And you have to hedge both of those in order to lock in the value and the margin.

I got it. And maybe last one for me. I'm just curious, with Ram River shut in, how long you're able to keep it offline without incurring some of the expenditures related to the asset retirement obligation? Maybe you could just remind us or update us on what the current ARO balance is for the site.

Currently, it's an active site. We are continuing to run the sulfur operations. There continues to be activity, so we don't believe that triggers any ARO accelerations. We have, you know, expecting that, you know, with higher gas prices and where the strip is, gas will come on in the next period. And, you know, we view it as a temporary shutdown. Everybody can see where ACO prices are, and they're not very good, and producing gas is not profitable at those levels. But with time, we expect that will come around and fix things. I don't have the discounted ARO number that's in our statements at my fingertips here.

It's, you know, on a discounted basis, it's not very high. Okay, great. Thanks. I'll leave it there.

Thank you. And once again, if you would like to ask a question, please press the star one. Your next question comes from the line of Robert Cotillier with CIBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Hi again. I just want to ask the opposite question I asked on the renewables call, which what is the assurance do you think you could see a policy decision supporting the LCFS credit market implemented?

Well, the reality is it could be by the end of this year as possible.

You know, it's government. We've been at this for a while now, but they need to work through it. We gave some guidance around what we think a trade case would take, and we are highly confident based on the advice we've gotten that we would be successful in that. That takes a bit more time. So these things can happen quickly. You know, there's short-term things the government can do to help, and there's long-term things, and they are actively considering both.

Right, but is there anything in the regulations that they can do that doesn't require that are outside of the trade case that could be implemented, you know, quickly? Like, you know, it's my belief that there are tools available to them.

Yeah, well, like, if you go look at the regulations around LCFS, They have the ability to differentiate credit eligibility based on origin of product. That's right in the regulations. I don't have it sitting here at my table to tell you the section, but that is in there. So there are things they can do very quickly.

Right. Last question for me is just with respect to the RAC discounts, is there a degree of change you can provide based on the contracts you signed relative to the expiring contract?

You know, it's commercially sensitive. I think you're seeing all the refiners margins that they're reporting being squeezed a little bit. You know, we can tell you, we've given you guidance for the rest of this year. That includes what we think is happening in Q4 here with the Synovus contract being running out. So I think that's what we can give at this point.

Yeah. Okay. I understand. Thanks.

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would like to turn it back to Michael Grasher for closing remarks.

Thanks, everyone, for joining the call today. Please feel free to reach out to the team with any questions you might have. Thank you.

Thank you, presenters. And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for participating. You may now disconnect.