2/22/2024

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to Torex Gold's fourth quarter and full year 2023 conference call and webcast. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. After the presentation, there'll be an opportunity to ask questions. To join the question queue, you may press star then 1 on your telephone keypad. Should you need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star and zero. I would now like to turn the conference over to Dan Rollins, Senior Vice President, Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

speaker
Dan Rollins
Senior Vice President, Corporate Development and Investor Relations

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. On behalf of the TORX team, welcome to our Q4 and full year 2023 conference call. Before we begin, I wish to inform listeners that a presentation accompanying today's conference call can be found under the investor section of our website at www.toraxgold.com. I would also like to note that certain statements to be made today by the management team may contain forward-looking information. As such, please refer to the detailed cautionary notes on page two of today's presentation, as well as those included in the Q4 2023 MD&A. On the call today, we have Jody Kazenko, President and CEO, Andrew Snowden, CFO, as well as Dave Stefanuto, Executive Vice President, Technical Services and Capital Projects. Following the presentation, Jody, Andrew, and Dave will be available for the question and answer period. This conference call is being webcast and will be available for replay on our website. Last night's press release and the company financial statements and MD&A are posted on our website and have been filed on CDAR. Please also note that all amounts mentioned in this call are U.S. dollars unless otherwise stated. I'll now turn the call over to Jody.

speaker
Jody Kazenko
President and CEO

Thank you, Dan, and good morning to all on the line. I'll open my remarks today by speaking to how proud I am of both the operations and the project's teams at Morelos for another strong year of results. On the operating side of the business at ELG, we produced 454,000 ounces of gold, we delivered on our original production guidance for the fifth straight year and solidified our position as the largest gold producer in mexico in q4 we also achieved the second highest quarter of production in our history and this was driven by a number of new operational records which i'll speak to shortly alongside our operational results the media luna team continued to make significant progress the project was 60 complete at the end of the year with 84% of expenditures committed and 56% of expenditures incurred. We remain on schedule for first copper concentrate production by the end of this year. Dave will speak more to the project specifics, but with 21 months behind us and 12 months to go in the project period, we are very much tracking the schedule. In terms of capex for the project, procurement for equipment, materials, and services is tracking reasonably well to the feasibility study plan. That said, the strength of the Mexican peso remains a headwind to contend with, along with general inflationary pressures, and the teams continue to work hard to find offsets against these pressures. Andrew will speak to this subject in more detail shortly. Most importantly, from my perspective, we accomplished what we accomplished in 2023 safely, with no lost time injuries for the full year at ELG and none in the second half of the year at the MediLuna project. We continue to pride ourselves in being one of the safest operators in the industry, and I'm happy to say that in Q4, we surpassed 10 million hours worked without a lost time injury at the ELG operations for the third time since 2020, which is a pretty significant achievement and one that I'm personally very proud of. Beginning on slide four, this is our strategy. This should look familiar but a bit different to most of you. While our strategic pillars remain largely consistent with what you've seen for the last three years, Given the progress we've made on our plan, it was time to update the strategy to reflect some slight shifts in focus. I'll take you through this pretty quickly. First, the previous pillar of advance and de-risk medialuna is now squarely focused on getting medialuna done, delivering the project on schedule and on budget, and then ramping up the mine to full production of 7,500 tons per day. A number of key project risks that we were actively managing just a year ago are now in the rear view mirror. We broke through in the Y has tunnel in December and we've now obtained all permits for both the operational and development phases. From where we sit today, we're confident in our ability to deliver first production in Q4 24 commercial production in early 2025 and achieve steady state production within the three year ramp up we outlined in the technical report. Next, our teams are focusing on integrating the MediLuna project with our ELG operations to really get the site working inside the same systems. And from there, we'll optimize the entire Morelos property to have both sides of the river running at continuously improved performance in terms of productivity and costs, no different than what we do today at ELG operations. While our operations and project teams are hard at work, it's critical that we remain focused on disciplined growth and capital allocation. With $465 million of available liquidity at year end, we're pretty pleased to say that available liquidity now is greater than the remaining spend on the MediLuna project, which is $384 million left to spend. And that is before even considering the four quarters of strong cash flow we have coming to us from ELG operations this year. On the bottom left of the slide, you'll see grow reserves and resources. This isn't new. The two areas of near-term focus are drilling at ELG Underground, which has further increased our confidence to replace reserves and increase resources. And the second area is drilling on the south side of the Balsas River. It continues to highlight the potential for new mining areas such as EPO and MediLuna West. We're making good progress on completing an internal pre-feasibility study this year on EPO. to see how we can optimally fit this into our future life of mine plans as an additional source of feed for the mill. In the bottom center, you'll see retain and attract best industry talent as a new pillar. But this really isn't new to the TORX agenda. We can continue to see our talent and our culture as key strategic differentiators in terms of our ability to consistently deliver results, And finally, there on ESG excellence, we closed the year with a lost time injury frequency of 0.31 per million hours worked. And we continue to work our sustainability agenda such that risks in this category are responsibly managed. Turning to some highlights of our results on slide five. As you can see from this chart, Torex has firmly asserted itself as a consistent, reliable producer with average production over the past five years, of over 450 000 ounces production in 2023 was near the midpoint the full year guided range full year total cash costs and asic came in at the upper end of the revised guided ranges total cash costs at 866 dollars per ounce while asic was twelve hundred dollars per ounce While free cash flow was negative in the year as expected, company-wide we generated $181 million of positive cash flow for the full year. That's prior to spending $366 million on the MediLuna project. Really, that 181 is a testament to the cash generation capability of our Morelos asset. We exited the year with a very strong balance sheet, and Andrew will touch on that in more detail when he is up. On slide six, I wanted to point out that the strong production in Q4 was driven by a number of operational records that were broken for both the quarter and the year. While not shown specifically on these charts, in the ELG open pits, average tons per day mined for the quarter was 19,400. This set a new daily ore tons mined record and certainly contributed to the finished production results you see on the top left. On the top right, throughput rates in the processing plant remained above 13,000 tons per day for the fourth consecutive quarter. And so the team set a new annual throughput record of 13,178 tons per day. Bottom left, you can see the grades picked up as expected in Q4 following the completion of that low grade high strip phase of the open pit mine plan we saw through the middle of 2023. And finally on the bottom right, The momentum from ELG underground continued into the fourth quarter, with mining rates averaging 2,300 tons per day in Q4 and over 2,000 tons per day for the year. This is important for two reasons. First, it surpassed the previous annual record set in 2022. And second, it means that we achieved our targeted production rate one full year ahead of our schedule. Over now to slide seven on the topic of the 2024 outlook. This table captures the guidance we issued in mid-January. There are a couple of important takeaways. First, 2024 will be the first year we're also reporting on a gold-equivalent basis as we begin to see meaningful copper production in Q4 when MediLuna comes online. Second, production is forecast to be slightly lower this year than in 2023 as we're budgeting a one-month shutdown of the processing plant in Q4. This will allow for the necessary upgrades to be done to the processing plant as part of the MediaLuna project. This includes the tie-in for the copper and iron sulfide flotation circuits, the tie-in for the regrind mills and the water treatment plant, as well as the installation of variable speed drive on the ball mill. As a result of this lower production, total cash costs are expected to be modestly higher in 2024 than in 2023, reflecting both the one-month shutdown and the initial startup costs at MediaLuna. That said, all its sustaining costs are guided lower for 2024 than in 2023, as capitalized waste stripping is significantly lower now that we're through the high-strip phase at the open pits. We've also factored in considerations for the stronger PESO, and Andrew will provide specifics on that momentarily. Finally, we're very pleased that this will be the last year of significant investment at Medialuna, with a guided range of $350 to $400 million. We expect capital expenditures to decrease significantly in 2025 and a rapid return to positive free cash flow during 2025. Looking longer term on slide 8, the work we've done over the last few years to improve mining rates and plant efficiencies and add meaningful ounces to the mine plan continues to improve the long-term outlook. And you can see in this table how it's evolved. Two years ago, we were guiding 385 to 425,000 ounces for this year, for 2024. Now, guidance for this year is solidly above that and is averaging over 450,000 ounces of gold equivalent ounces per year through 2027. The benefit of the reserve additions we made in 2022 can be seen in the improved production profile in the year of 2028. which is now 10% higher than outlined in the 22 technical report. This reflects a deferral of lower grade stockpiles and replacing it with higher grade run of mine feed. We can expect to further improve on the production outlook by continuing to replace and grow ELG underground reserves and potentially bringing EPO into that life of mine plan I discussed. With that, I'll pass the call over to Andrew to walk us through the financial performance and balance sheet positioning.

speaker
Andrew Snowden
Chief Financial Officer

Okay, thank you, Jody, and good morning, everyone. I'll start my commentary first on slide 10, where you can see we closed out 2023 on a solid financial note, supported by the strong operational performance achieved in the fourth quarter, which Jody just walked through. During Q4, we achieved our strongest all-in sustaining cost performance of the year, with our ASIC margins improving to 46%, driven by higher fourth quarter production, ongoing focused cost management, and also a strong realized price of almost $2,000 an ounce. And this is actually the highest quarterly realized gold price seen by the company. Although financial performance was supported by these stronger gold prices, we were impacted in the year by the strength of the peso, which averaged 17.7 to 1 US dollar in 2023. And this compared to our budgeted rate of 20 to 1. The stronger peso through the year increased our all-in sustaining cost by approximately $50 an ounce in the year. Considering the ongoing strength of the peso, we have budgeted in 2024 on the basis of an 18 to 1 exchange rate. And this is also the rate that's reflected in both our total cash costs and our all-in sustaining cost guidance, which Jody walked through earlier. Recall that for every one peso move relative to the US dollar, Our role in sustaining costs will be impacted by about $10 million a year. Looking next to the bottom left quadrant of this slide, as expected, capital spending continued to increase in the fourth quarter with $124 million spent on MediaLuna. This is the highest quarterly spend on the project to date. We expect project expenditures to remain around these levels through to and including the third quarter of this year. before decreasing in Q4 as we approach commercial production. For full year 2023, total capital spending was $478 million, and that includes $366 million spent on the MediaLuna project. And this directly impacted free cash flow as shown on the bottom right quadrant of the slide. Excluding the spend on MediaLuna, our underlying business, including costs incurred on drilling and corporate, continue to produce robust cash flows with over $180 million of free cash flow for the year. Turning now to slide 11, you can see here a summary of our unit cost performance for the year. And despite the ongoing pressure from the stronger Mexican peso I referenced, overall costs were largely in line with the costs achieved in 2022. And the open pit costs were slightly up just given the additional stockpile re-handling and contractor costs associated with a period of elevated waste stripping in the second and third quarters. At ELG underground, you can see that record mining rates led to the stronger cost performance there compared to 2022. And then finally, at the processing plant, the increased costs relative to 2022 reflect the higher consumable prices flagged at the start of the year, particularly cyanide pricing, as well as a stronger Mexican peso. And these were partly offset by the higher milk throughput. I will note here, though, that with ammonia prices coming down through the course of 2023, we have secured improved cyanide pricing for the 2024 year, and so don't expect that to be as significant of a cost pressure in this year's cost profile. Turning now to slide 12, you can see the impact here of the increased capital spending on our cash balance, which declined by about $200 million through the year, from $376 million at the start of the year to a closing cash balance of 173 million. As you can see here, this use of cash was primarily driven by the 478 million spent on capital, including that $366 million attributable to the MediaLuna project. In addition to this capital expenditure, the company also paid $116 million in taxes during the year. We also did see a negative working capital outflow of about $40 million which was partially related to some slower VAT refunds we saw towards the end of the year. These VAT refunds did resume in February with $12 million collected in the last few weeks, and we expect further amounts to be received in March. While I'm talking cash, though, I do want to just remind everyone that, as always, we do expect seasonality in our cash flow related to taxes and royalty payments through the course of 2024. Through this year, I expect monthly tax installments will continue to average about $6 million a month, but we also expect a small annual income tax true-up, which will be paid in March. In addition, the annual 7.5% mining tax, this is accrued throughout the year, but paid annually in March, and we expect $25 million there to be paid next month. And in addition to that, there's the 0.5% royalty related to the proceeds from gold and silver sales, This again is accrued monthly through the year, but only paid in Q1. And we expect about $4 million on that royalty to be paid next month. And finally, just to remind everyone about the Mexican profit sharing payment, that again is accrued monthly through the year and paid out annually in Q2. The 2023 PTU that we expect to be paid in May of this year is about $24 million. And finally, on cash flow, the one item I did want to also highlight is the seasonality impact that we'll see in Q4. And as Jody referenced earlier, we are expecting to have the plant shut down for a month in Q4 for the media lunar tie-ins. And so we'll only have about two months of revenue during that period. With this shutdown, in addition to the significant level of MediaLuna spending anticipated over the remainder of the year, we do expect free cash flow to remain negative through 2024 before turning positive in mid 2025 with a ramp up of MediaLuna and significant decline in our capital expenditure. And looking at our liquidity position on slide 13, just one point I wanted to highlight here is you can see our lease related obligations did increase during the quarter to end the year at $32 million. These leases relate to mobile equipment for MediaLuna, with $20 million outstanding for advance payments made by our lessor in the year. And with the arrival of our first pieces of Sandvik equipment in the fourth quarter, $12 million in leases did commence. These leases will continue to climb throughout 2024 and into 2025 as we take further deliveries on our underground MediaLuna mining fleet. The key takeaway from this slide, though, is our balance sheet remains strong with $465 million in available liquidity and we're well positioned to allow us to deliver on our strategic priorities. And as illustrated on slide 14, you can see how this liquidity position well supports MediaLuna on our strategic goal of maintaining at least $100 million of cash on the balance sheet. I've noted earlier, available liquidity of $465 million is now greater than the $384 million of capital remaining on MediaLuna. And when including our strategic goal of maintaining $100 million in the balance sheet, we only require $19 million of cash flow from ELG over the next four quarters to achieve this, which I expect sitting here in mid-February, we've already generated that level of free cash flow. Given the solid liquidity position, coupled with strong ongoing free cash flow from ELG, which was over $180 million in 2023, we're extremely confident in our ability to fund MediaLuna exit 2024 with a strong balance sheet. And then, as I mentioned, return to positive free cash flow generation next year in 2025. Now, finally, I'll touch briefly on hedging, which is summarized here on slide 15. And just to note, to take advantage of the higher gold prices we saw in Q4 and to match the spending profile forecast through the course of this year on MediaLuna, we have locked in an additional 17,000 ounces of gold forward sales in Q3 of 2024. And that was at a price of just over $2,100 an ounce, bringing the Q3 average forward price to over $2,000 an ounce. This now brings our total amount of gold hedged for the year to 158,000 ounces at an average gold price of $19.72 an ounce, and you can see that summarized on this slide by quarter. I've noted in the past we feel these purpose-built hedges are prudent to protect about 40% of our gold production this year during a period in which internal cash flow is a key source of funding for MediaLuna. Also, just to note, there have been no changes to the zero-cost collars placed to hedge against foreign exchange rates for the Mexican peso. And as a reminder, we expect approximately 45% of MediaLuna expenditures to be peso denominated. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dave for an update on MediaLuna.

speaker
Dave Stefanuto
Executive Vice President, Technical Services and Capital Projects

Thanks, Andrew, and good morning to everyone on the call. Slide 17 shows the progress at MediaLuna during the fourth quarter. The project is 60% complete, up from 49% at the start of the quarter, and is tracking the schedule and budget. Underground development work is also 60% complete, and I'm proud of the work our teams have done at site. Project to date, underground crews have achieved 22,000 meters of lateral and vertical development, with about 14,800 meters of lateral and vertical development remaining on the project. This has split approximately 50-50 between project capital development and operating. On surface, construction of the important Mazapa bypass road and bridge is now complete, allowing for deliveries of large equipment to the south side of the Balsas River. Concrete foundation work, including the YS conveyor drive station, flotation plant, water treatment plant, and 230 kV substation continue to make good progress, with planned completion expected this quarter. Pouring of the foundations for the Pace plant are well underway, with our single largest pour to date completed in the Thickner area. Production mobile equipment deliveries have also commenced. These include the diesel electric Sandvik Rhino raise borer and the first Sandvik electric jumbo. A simulator for this equipment has also arrived and has been commissioned at site, with the first operators having already completed their initial training. In parallel, our operational readiness and workforce transition plans continue to keep pace with physical progress to ensure we can execute efficiently during the commissioning and ramp up phases of the project later this year. Now on slide 18. As noted earlier, breakthrough of the Wyeth tunnel was completed in December, three months ahead of schedule. I want to touch on how impressive an achievement this is, given that the tunnel is not only seven kilometers long, but also six meters wide by six and a half meters high. The alignment at the tunnel at the breakthrough point was within centimeters, a truly remarkable accomplishment. Crews that were previously working on the tunnel have now been redeployed to assist with the capital development work at Media Luna Lower, further ensuring our ability to complete all required project development. Connection to the tunnel will improve travel time between both sides of the river and now connects the two sides as one unified operation. This also creates opportunities for a more efficient and uninterrupted installation of mine services and the ore handling conveyor in the tunnel. The majority of these conveyor components, including all the conveyor tables and belt segments, have been received. Anchor bolting to hang the conveyor commenced in January and conveyor installation is expected to take several months with commissioning in August of 2024. On slide 19, we've included some pictures of these key accomplishments I just highlighted. Concrete works on the surface are seen in both the top left photo outside the south portal upper where the paste plant and tailings thickener will be installed and the bottom left photo where footings for the flotation circuits are nearing completion ahead of steel erection, which has started this month. The top middle photo shows part of the completed Mazapa bypass road and bridge. The top right photo shows Jody initiating the final blast for breakthrough at the Wyeth tunnel. And finally, to the bottom left is our Sandvik Rhino raised borer that was delivered to site. In summary, lots of progress has been made and a number of significant accomplishments were achieved during Q4. With first production still on track for Q4 of this year, we're looking forward to delivering MediaLuna to plan. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Jody.

speaker
Jody Kazenko
President and CEO

Thanks, Dave. Before we wrap up here, I wanted to just take some time to highlight some noteworthy exploration results we released during the quarter and touch on the plan for this year, starting on slide 21. Beginning here with the ELG underground, our understanding of the structural controls of the ore body is evolving, and results indicate that mineralization is controlled by north-northwest structural corridors. We call them trends here on this plan view. You can also see northeast trending faults. There are two of them there, La Flaca and Zone 71 faults in blue on the image. Where these trends intersect these faults will be a key focus of our exploration and drilling program in 2024. Importantly, results at ELJ Underground have increased our confidence in the ability to continue to replace reserves year after year, and you can expect our year-end 2023 mineral reserve and resource update in March. Moving to the south side of the Balsas River, shown here on slide 22, we conducted our first drilling at Medelluna West since 2013, some 10 years ago, and have identified it as a potential third mineralized zone within the MediLuna cluster. Drilling encountered mineralization in close proximity to existing and planned infrastructure being developed as part of MediLuna with some very notable high grades, including almost 30 grams per ton over 14 meters. While it's still early days at MediLuna West, there's strong potential for this to become yet another source of feed to fill the mill. The positive drill results we're encountering further underscore our belief in the resource potential of the south side of the property. A portion of the 2024 budget at MediLuna will be focused in this area. Finally, on slide 23, the positive results from our 23 exploration and drilling program will form the baseline for our 2024 program, which is outlined here. $30 million has been budgeted for this program in 2024, 15 million of which is attributed to the MediLuna cluster, where we'll be conducting infill and expansionary drilling at EPO and furthering the exploration program at MediLuna West. We're also interested in a new target called Todos Santos. You can see it there in bland view, where an inaugural drilling program will kick off this year. $12 million has been set aside for further drilling at ELG Underground, where we will look to access untapped upside along the trends and continue to add reserves and expand resources. And finally, $3 million has been allocated for near mine and regional exploration and drilling. There are a number of targets across Morelos that warrant additional investigation and really speak to how we see this as a long life foundational asset. All in, 2023 was just an excellent year across the board. We look forward to delivering this pivotal year in 2024 and really setting ourselves up for decades of mining at Morelos and with that for growth in Mexico and beyond. I'll now turn the call back over to Arielle to initiate the question process.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To join the question queue, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. You will hear a tone acknowledging your request. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing any keys. To withdraw your question, please press star, then 2. We will pause for a moment as callers join the queue. Our first question comes from Eric Windmill of Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

speaker
Eric Windmill
Analyst, Scotiabank

Great. Good morning to the Torex team. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe just firstly on the financial side, great to see you've got lots of liquidity here. Any comments on how we should think about the balance sheet through this year when you plan to draw on either credit facilities or kind of minimum cash balances and how you're going to manage that? Be helpful. Thanks.

speaker
Andrew Snowden
Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Andrew here, Eric. So we expect, as I mentioned in my commentary, to try and maintain $100 million cash balance throughout the year. And so as our cash balance looks to decline below that, then we'll start our first draws on the credit facility. As I mentioned, we do have a fairly significant cash outflows here in Q1, particularly in March with all of the tax payments. I mentioned the 7.5% royalty, the 0.5% royalty. and other tax payments. And so my current expectation is that we will start to draw on the facility in March of this year. And then I'll probably expect, you know, quarterly draws in and around the same level throughout the first three quarters of this year as we continue to deliver on our media lunar expenditure.

speaker
Eric Windmill
Analyst, Scotiabank

Okay, fantastic. Thank you very much, Andrew. Maybe just another question, too, on Mexico. Obviously, lots of news in the headlines these days. Any comments on sort of what's happening on the ground or, you know, any potential impacts here to Medellin or Yolanchit?

speaker
Jody Kazenko
President and CEO

Yeah, I think, Eric, what's captured the headlines recently is the federal government's announcement on 20 law amendments, many of which are constitutional in nature. But, too, that touch on the mining industry is a proposed ban on open mining and then some pretty serious limitations on water concessions and water scarce areas. A couple of comments on that. There's just no indication at all that any of this is thought to be retroactive. So established companies like Torex should be able to continue operating well into the foreseeable future as we plan to do. And the other thing I would say is that we did expect some excitement, if you will, during a pre-election period. And so I wouldn't confuse that with really specific policy-oriented movements here in the mining industry. So the Morena administration needs a majority in the Congress to pass any of these constitutional amendments. There's some six months to go here until the June election. We'll see what gets tabled in advance. But it's a long way to go before either of those amendments is a done deal.

speaker
Eric Windmill
Analyst, Scotiabank

Okay, fantastic. Thank you. Very helpful. Great to see the progress at MediLuna, and I look forward to following the updates this year. I'll hop back in the queue. Thanks.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

Our next question comes from Don DeMarco of National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

speaker
Don DeMarco
Analyst, National Bank Financial

Thank you, Operator. And good morning, Jody and Torek's team. So, Jody, a lot of contributing factors to the success and operational success in Q4, as you mentioned, mining rates, throughput, and grades. On grades in particular, what can we expect for the open pit grades through the year in 2024?

speaker
Jody Kazenko
President and CEO

Okay. Yeah, Don, I'll start with open pit mining in 2024. It's going to be what I would describe as at usual levels in Q1 and Q2, and then it tapers off significantly in Q3 and Q4. In terms of how that translates into process grade, it'll be fairly flat during the first three quarters of this year. and then picks up in Q4 as we bring Betty Luna feed on. Overall, year on year, we closed at 2023 at, I think, about 3.3 gram a ton, and we'll be slightly above that in 2024, somewhere between 3.5 and 4 gram a ton gold equivalent.

speaker
Don DeMarco
Analyst, National Bank Financial

Okay, thank you. And next question, looking to the 30-day shutdown, the one-month shutdown that you mentioned, can you provide any more color on this, like specifically, for instance, Do you know the timing of the shutdown? Is it earlier or later in Q4? Is there a possibility that it straddles Q3? And during the shutdown, will you continue to mine and stockpile ore?

speaker
Jody Kazenko
President and CEO

We'll definitely continue to mine and stockpile ore. And one of the important things to mention is that we have a full year mine plan out of ELG. And so irrespective of the timing of the shutdown, we're mining. And so if it moves a little to the right, will just continue to produce. It's not as though it's a brand new project, and if it doesn't turn on exactly in October, that we're out of production or cash flow. From where we sit today, we're looking at either the months of October or November. One of the things that we're really focused on to keep that shutdown tight is to integrate as much as possible in the planned maintenance periods that we take monthly between now and the time of the Q4 shutdown. I'll give you an example. The Medialuna flow sheet calls for an additional trash screen. On the last shutdown we did in early February, we poured concrete for that. And on the shutdown in April, we will be installing that trash screen. That's already baked into the production plan. And so we'll be looking to fill up each of those maintenance periods with as much Medialuna scope as we can. And so from where we sit today, John, we're looking at some point in Q4, preferably earlier away from Christmas as possible. We canceled Christmas in 23. We would like to have it in 24 and be celebrating bringing MediLuna online.

speaker
Don DeMarco
Analyst, National Bank Financial

Okay. Thank you for that. And adding to that question then, can you just comment on the pace of the ramp up toward commercial production? post that one month shutdown period and connecting the mill to various tie-ins and so on?

speaker
Jody Kazenko
President and CEO

Yeah, I'm going to make a distinction here between mine ramp up and processing plant ramp up. We see the process plant ramp up as being fairly rapid. You can see in our information that we plan to get to commercial production in Q1 of 2025, because really we're just turning on the copper and iron sulfide flotation circuits, which is not an exceptionally complex process. Now, on the mining side, we've given ourselves three full years to ramp up to 7,500 tons a day. In fact, the mine will essentially be paid off before we ramp up to full production. And so we expect that will be a long process. We have to open up many headings. In full production, the Medelluna mine will be turning somewhere between 90 and 100 stopes a year. That takes time. That takes time. And so we've given ourselves enough time reasonably to be able to do that. Again, the emphasis for the TORX team on the feasibility study was to put out something realistic that we'll hold ourselves accountable to. That's project schedule, CAPEX, and includes the ramp-up schedule.

speaker
Don DeMarco
Analyst, National Bank Financial

Okay. Thank you very much. That's all the questions I have.

speaker
Conference Operator
Operator

Once again, if you have a question, please press star, then 1. Our next question comes from Wayne Lamb of RBC. Please go ahead.

speaker
Wayne Lamb
Analyst, RBC

Hey, morning. Just had a question on costs. I know you guys have guided to the top end of basic guidance, which came in at the very top end despite an almost record quarter production-wise in Q4. Just curious what the main driver is on that outside the stronger peso, and are there any elements that continue to drive cost pressures higher versus your expectations?

speaker
Andrew Snowden
Chief Financial Officer

I mean, really, Wayne, the main single driver for the ASIC being at the higher end of our guided range was the peso. I mean, we were expecting to have a strong Q4 operationally, and so that was built into our revised guidance when we issued that. It was really the peso hanging out around that 17 to 1 that was the real main driver.

speaker
Wayne Lamb
Analyst, RBC

Okay, great. Thanks. And then maybe just curious on Medea Luna, following up on the question on the timeline, the breakthrough on the tunnel was obviously a big milestone for the company. Are there any activities that you can get a head start on now with that completed kind of ahead of schedule?

speaker
Dave Stefanuto
Executive Vice President, Technical Services and Capital Projects

Yeah, this is Dave Stefanuto here. Definitely, I think what the advance in three months has done for us is allowed us to actually improve the installation of the Juarez conveyor, which is going to be critical in terms of building up our ore stockpile in advance of commissioning that flotation plant. So although we're targeting an August commissioning date, we think we've got a little bit of flexibility to try and advance that to increase some production and reduce some risk in terms of that initial ramp up of the flotation plant.

speaker
Wayne Lamb
Analyst, RBC

Patrick Corbett- Okay perfect thanks and maybe just on the remaining capex spend this year, are there any remaining long lead time items are just wondering what the bottleneck components are in getting to completion in Q4.

speaker
Dave Stefanuto
Executive Vice President, Technical Services and Capital Projects

Patrick Corbett- yeah good question, I mean, as we suspected all along electrical components and electrical switch gear have been the challenge on the project. And it's been a challenge in the industry in general, you know, certainly driven by the excitement around alternative energy sources, EV power and so on. So we're feeling that. So we're tracking that very closely. And unfortunately, electrical equipment is one of the last things that you engineer on a project. So there were some of our later POs that we issued. I can say that all of those POs have been issued and we're tracking that very well. So some of the longer lead POs for the high voltage equipment, we did get out on the street early on those, and they're tracking well as well. But we are making sure our vendors meet their commitment, and that's really the next step that we need to focus on.

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Wayne Lamb
Analyst, RBC

Okay, perfect. Thanks for that detail, and thanks for answering my questions.

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Conference Operator
Operator

As there appear to be no more questions, this concludes today's conference call. you may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.

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