Golden Cariboo Resources Ltd.

Good morning. Welcome to GCC's fourth quarter 2023 earnings results conference call. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this call is being recorded and that all participants will be in a listen-only mode. Please also note a slide presentation accompanies today's webcast. The link is available on the company's IR website at gcc.com. I would now like to turn the call over to Sari Oguchi, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining. With me today are Mr. Enrique Escalante, our Chief Executive Officer, and Mike Strecker, Chief Financial Officer. The earnings release detailing our 2023 fourth quarter results was released yesterday after market close and is available on the company's website. This conference call is also being brought to you live within the investor section of the company's website at gcc.com. And both the website's replay of the call and transcripts will be available on the same site approximately one hour after the end of today's call. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that our remarks today will include forward-looking statements. Actual reports may differ materially from those compensated by these forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause individuals to differ materially are set for the yesterday's press release and in our quarterly report filed with the BMV. Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on assumptions as of today, and we undertake no obligation to update this statement as a result of new information or future events. With that, let me now turn the call over to Enrique.

Thank you, Zauri, and good morning, everyone.

GTC has an outstanding year. with 16.7% and 30.6% increases in full-year revenue and EBITDA, respectively. Our four-quarter results contributed to this growth. Our GCC has delivered double-digit top-line growth for the 11 consecutive quarters compared to the prior year quarter. Importantly, we remain focused on our vision and on our strong execution of related PLOs, which resonate on GCC's performance. I'd like to take this opportunity to thank the GCC team for their hard work throughout 2023. We achieved these results thanks to their motivation and dedication. Along these lines, I would like to share some highlights on the three pillars aligned with our 2025 vision, our people, planet, and profit. Studying with people, we achieved three key objectives in 2023. First, we were laser focused on developing a culture where safety is our number one priority. During the year, we worked on the implementation phase of our safety strategy plan and put in place a serious injury and fatality prevention system. As a result, we have increased safety awareness, and the team's proactive participation in sharing and identifying potential hazards. We completed training for all supervisors and managers as part of overall progress throughout this organization. This continues in 2024 as we further build out our safety culture and continue to improve our safety, health, and safety statistics. Second, we strengthened our commitment to fostering a skilled workforce throughout the GCC CEMENT Training Institute. We identified gaps within our operations and built a customized training plan aligned with each of our plan's needs. During 2023, we dedicated more than 10,300 hours training nearly 400 employees. As an initial result, gives us new ways to improve the efficiency of some equipment, ultimately impacting our profitability. We are finalizing our 2024 annual training plans and our designing plans for 2025. And third, we maintain and motivated a stable workforce. This was particularly noteworthy given a tight labor market and was critical to our ability to ensure stable operations and deliver product strengthening GCC's outstanding client relationships. We are proud to have again been recognized as a Great Place to Work certified company in 2023, aligned with our focus on identifying improvement areas and ensuring talent retention.

Turning to an update on our strategy associated with the Planet Pillar.

This past year, we focused on three initiatives to lower our CO2 emissions. First, we advanced our blended cement strategy and doubled the share of blended cement within our portfolio. I'm pleased to report that blended cement represented 73% of our overall cement sales portfolio as of December 2023. Strong execution of our flexible fuel strategy, embracing cleaner options such as alternative fuels and natural gas. In 2023, we increased the use of natural gas by 35%, and GCC's U.S. plant increased their alternative fuel usage by almost 30%. Our Pueblo plant represented the most significant steady increase of GCC's plants. increasing their alternative fuel substitution by six percentage points in 2023. This strategy also enabled important cost savings. We saved $12 million in fuel costs in 2023. Third, we continue executing our operational efficiency strategy by improving temperature controls, replacing equipment, and stabilizing operations which reduce our overall energy consumption. As a result, during 2023, our scope one CO2 emissions decreased 4.6% year-on-year and by 7.8% compared to our 2015 baseline. We are proud that our Pueblo, Colorado, and Rapid City South Dakota plants have been recognized by the EPA and were Energy Star certified for another consecutive year, raising internal awareness about energy efficiency opportunities and responsibilities that drive our emissions reductions. Going forward, we will continue focusing on carbon capture projects on an investment plan to further our use of alternative fuels and on advancing in the integration of blended cement within our portfolio. Turning to our profit pillar, we anticipated the softer residential market in 2023, swiftly pivoting our strategy of supply to growing segments such as infrastructure and oil and gas. The execution of this commercial strategy was an important driver of GCC's 2023 results and was enabled by the flexibility of our operations, one of our key competitive advantages. We are therefore confident that we will sustain EBITDA margins, also benefiting from improved plant utilization and by leveraging increased capacity to address demand. Further execution of our commercial strategy also enables flexibility in the verticals we serve. Turning to an update on our markets and starting with our U.S. operations, favorable weather conditions extended the 2023 construction season into late December, driving a 19.6% surge in sales compared to the prior year quarter. This trend was reflected in record concrete volumes delivered during December. However, it's important to note that it's likely the extended four-quarter construction season has pulled forward work which was previously planned for the first quarter. We're also seeing a cold first quarter start as more normal weather patterns return. 2023 sales also benefited from successful pricing during the year. Additionally, we decided to implement an $8 per ton price increase for construction cement, which took effect on January 1st. To touch up on relevant updates related to the Infrastructure Investments and Jobs Act, we saw strong activity levels for infrastructure bidding work in the fourth quarter, but further delays to project starts. GTG remains well-positioned We are actively pursuing new opportunities in the infrastructure sector, and we're encouraged that quote activity is higher than normal for this time of year. GCC was awarded several infrastructure projects in the fourth quarter of 2023, including participation in the construction of the largest clean energy infrastructure project in U.S. history, one which we have already begun work. an airport based in Wyoming and Rocket City, South Dakota, and projects related to the energy gateway transmission line running through Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah. Also, during the year, we will continue work at the Denver International Airport. For water use residential sector, demand shows signs of stabilizing. With housing market growth expected, should mortgage rate interest continue to increase? Colorado remains the metropolitan area most adversely impacted by the software market. Cement deliveries through the U.S. border have been adversely impacted by the U.S. shutdown of the border crossing at El Paso on December 21 due to the migrant crisis. While this did not significantly impact GCC's four-quarter results, a prolonged closure of major U.S.-Mexico rail bridges vital to cross-border trade could affect GCC's first quarter results if this continues. GCC differentiated network connectivity enables us to offset this effect by supplying 90,000 tons from our Pueblo operations, replacing cement shipments from Samalayuca, while protecting our market share in the quarter. Deflectivity of network connectivity is an important competitive advantage enabling us to ensure our clients' product supply despite social and weather-related challenges. We have moved forward to preemptively book railway capacity and ensure our logistics are fully optimized in the current context. Turning to our Mexico operations, sales grew by 13.8% during the quarter despite the adverse effect on volumes due to the lack of energy infrastructure and permitting delays on our industrial projects, as well as the mining segment contraction we have experienced since 2022. This lowdown aside, the positive outlook for our Mexican operations remains unchanged. This confidence is supported by a continued robust nearshoring trend. which is expected to continue to drive growth as demand for infrastructure continues. During the fourth quarter, we work on important related projects associated with this tailwind, notably 22 industrial firms in Juarez and three in Chihuahua, together with five apartment building projects. We anticipate an overall positive environment in Mexico. However, as noted in prior reports, we remain conservative on the mining segment as two of our biggest customers' reserves deplete. In summary, for GCC 2023 was a year characterized not only by strong growth and margins, but also by the strengthening of our meaningful competitive advantages with continued progress in 2024. Let me now turn the call over to Mike, who will share financial highlights on the fourth quarter and will provide guidance for 2024. Thank you, Enrique, and good morning to everyone. Our colleagues' focus on expanding and strengthening the foundation which underpins our both pillars is truly paving the way for continued strong performance in 2024 and beyond. Consolidated net sales for the fourth quarter increased 17.8% year over year to $339.8 million, which is a 19.6% sales increase within the U.S. market. As Enrique commented, demand in the U.S. was strong, with a 7.8% and 5.3% increase in concrete and cement volumes, respectively. as favorable weather conditions enabled an extended construction season. Additionally, GCC's 2023 pricing remained consistent with an 8.4% and 9.6% increase in cement and concrete pricing, respectively, on a year-over-year basis. Mexico sales increased by 13.8% in the fourth quarter compared to prior year quarters. to $102.7 million, representing 30% of GCC's total sales as both cement and concrete prices increased by 8.2% and 12.5% respectively. Price increases offset lower volumes delivered due to project delays, as Enrique has described.

For the full year, 2023, net sales increased 16.7%, led by growth in both markets.

Notably, sales in Mexico grew 29.9% on a year-over-year basis. Fourth quarter cost of sales as a percentage of revenues decreased by 540 basis points year-over-year. to 61.8%. Underpinned by a successful pricing strategy, our enhanced operational stability, favorable effect of continued optimization, as well as lower energy costs during the final quarter of the year. For the full year, 2023, the cost of sales was 63.2% of revenues. a 560 basis point year-over-year decrease. Fourth quarter 2023 SG&A expenses as a percentage of sales remained flat at 9.2%, while full-year SG&A expenses as a percentage of sales increased 50 basis points to 8.8%. Fourth quarter EBITDA increased 31%, compared to the prior year quarter to $118.2 million, reaching an EBITDA margin of 34.8%. US operations contributed 78% of EBITDA generated for the fourth quarter, with Mexico's operations generating the remaining 22%. EBITDA generation for 2023 reached $472.4 million, representing 30.6% increase compared to 2022. EBITDA margin for the full year reached 34.6%. Moving down the fourth quarter income statement, net financial income reached $7.4 million, compared with net financial expenses, which were essentially zero in the prior year's quarter. FGCT continues to benefit from higher interest rates in both the U.S. and Mexico on an increased cash balance. Net financial income for the full year was $25.3 million compared to net financial expenses of $18.3 million in 2022. Fourth quarter consolidated net income increased to $75 million from $4.4 million in the prior year quarter, while earnings per share increased to 23 cents from close to zero in the fourth quarter of 2022. Moving to our full year results, consolidated net income increased 110.5% to $295.3 million, and earnings per share reached 9 cents Turning to our cash generation, free cash flow was $107.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2023, a 2% decrease compared to the same period in 2022, reflecting increasing working capital needs, maintenance capex, and cash taxes. These cash requirements were partially offset by increased EBITDA generation during the quarter. For the full year, free cash flow was $233.7 million, a 16.2% increase, also due to increased working capital requirements, cash taxes, and maintenance capex. These were partially offset by increased EBITDA generation and higher interest income, as I've described above. GCC ended 2023 with a cash balance of $958.7 million. At the end of December 2023, our net debt to EBITDA ratio dropped to minus 0.99 times. During the year, we prioritized capital allocation on our Odessa plant expansion, on maintenance capex, sustainability projects, and on the deeper connecting project of our Samalaiuka plant. Importantly, during the year, we completed a new terminal north of Minneapolis, enabling us to strengthen GCC's position in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area while securing an outlet for rapid city expanded capacity. Furthermore, we allocated capital towards our share buyback program in the amount of $13.2 million, and dividends paid in 2023 in the amount of $24.6 million. In 2024, we will continue investing in our existing assets. We will further strengthen our distribution network, an important competitive advantage, as Enrique has described. and we'll continue to allocate capex toward ESG-related initiatives, but which we will be updating you later in the year.

With that, I will now hand the call back to Enrique to share his closing remarks.

To summarize, GCC's 2023 performance and start to the new year further solidifies and reinforces our confidence in both 2024 and the long-term growth objectives guided by our three pillars. Turning to slide 24, I would like to now take this opportunity to discuss our 2024 outlook. We are expecting a favorable environment in our markets for the upcoming year, projecting growth in both volumes and prices. our operational flexibility will continue to allow us to capitalize on the positive trends and navigate market dynamics. Therefore, we expect GPC's cement and concrete sales volumes to increase low single digits year over year in both countries. In terms of prices, considering the announcement we have already made, We anticipate a year of price increases in the mid-single-digit range for cement and concrete in Mexico and in the U.S. Regarding profitability, we expect 2024 EBITDA to increase mid-single-digit against the 2023 level.

We approximate our capital expenditures at $470 million.

including $400 million allocated to strategic and growth projects, including the Odessa expansion, and $70 million related to maintenance expenses. As a result, the free cash flow conversion rate before strategic and growth capex is expected to reach more than 60%, with a net debt to EBITDA ratio which would remain negative. With that, this concludes our prepared remarks. And I will turn the call over to your questions now. Operator, please begin with the first question.

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate the line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you would like to remove your question from the queue. And for participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your headset before pressing the star keys. Our first question is from Carlos Pierlong with Bank of America. Please proceed.

Thank you. Thank you, Enrique and Mike, for the call. Congratulations on the great year. My question is related to margins for this year. If you could provide some color, you highlighted the price increases and volume expectations for this year. We're just wondering what's your view on costs and whether we could expect some further margin expansion.

Thank you. Carlos, thank you very much for the question.

As a general statement, I want to tell you that we still see some cost improvement opportunities in 2024 that reflect on what Mike is going to address more specifically. Thank you. Yeah, good morning, Carlos. Thanks for the question, Carlos. So yeah, I will start with pricing. As Enrique said, The momentum is still there. We're working very closely with the customers, making sure we're communicating properly, and really also paying attention to their needs from logistics, technical, and product support overall. So we see still good momentum there. That will help, number one. Number two, on the cost side, We still plan with relatively stable input costs, fuel, energy. Again, the flexible fuel strategy is really paying dividends there with the investments that we have made in the past years around alternative fuels, also proactively working on the market for gas with some hedging. And then, as you know, we have our own coal mine back in full operation, which is an important stabilizing aspect. So that is important on the fuel side. On the energy side, similar work, very proactive. We have some projects around solar that will help us a little bit in 2024. And then proactively looking at the contracts on energy. So all these combined on the cost side should help us. And then the last comment I would make, the teams are really working very diligently utilizing the network and really finding the best and optimal distribution route, which, again, will help us to sustain what we accomplished on the margin side and then to continue to build it out. So those are a little bit the context on how we look at margin 2024.

Excellent. Thank you so much.

Our next question is from Adrian Huerta with J.P. Morgan. Please proceed.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Two questions. One is if you can just tell us how was the performance on volumes from construction and oil well cement in 2023 and which one you expect to perform better in 2024. And the other one is just maintenance capex. In the past, it has been running around $30 million, $50 million a year. Last year it was $65 million. Now you're guiding for $70 million. Is this $70 million the new run rate going forward as well?

Good morning, Adrián. How are you, Luis Enrique?

We're pulling some numbers for you here on the early world cement. On the fourth quarter of 2023, our demand for oil well cement grew approximately a little bit below 6%. And so we expect these levels to continue going forward. The plant has been running very well, the plant in Odessa, and we've been supplementing from Chihuahua now

moving the network so we can substitute more cement also from the U.S. plants.

So in summary, around 6% and we plan to continue at least at this level. We don't see any indication of softening on that market. I will allow Mike to answer on your capex question. Yeah, good morning, Adrian. Thanks for the question. So regarding the maintenance capex, again, if you go back to 2022, we'll be at the 34.9. Again, 22 was still a year, you know, with a lot of supply chain challenges and getting certain pieces of equipment to the plants to actually do the maintenance. So we had a little of a delay there. 23 was better, you know, with our 64.8 execution on the maintenance capex. That's the number 64 to 70 is the number that, you know, the current setup of plants and operations will keep us in very good shape. We'll pretty much keep those assets and in, like, new conditions and really allow us to perform. So, you know, in your model, you know, 65 to 70 is probably a proper number as what we use for maintenance graphics.

Excellent. Thank you to both.

Our next question is from Alejandra Albrugan with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.

Hi, good morning, Enrique, Mike, Saori. Thank you for taking my question. I guess it's a follow up to the two earlier questions. The first one is on oil well cement. I would like to dive a little bit more on your 2024 expectations, both on the pricing and on the volumes. Is perhaps the halt on US LNG permitting something that could risk some of your expectations on these vertical? So that'll be the first question. And then the second one is a little bit more strategic and on the CapEx front. So you have laid out several objectives. So you have decarbonization, you have efficiencies on your plants, Odessa, and perhaps some potential inorganic opportunities ahead. So if you could just lay them out and help us understand how you're prioritizing these objectives, both from, I guess, your focus and from CapEx and cash management perspective, that would be very helpful. Thank you.

Hi Alejandra. This is Enrique.

Thanks for the questions. Again, I'll address, I mean, the question on the oil market that I was telling Adrian. I mean, we think it's going to continue more or less at the current levels. We, of course, are having our plans, I mean, having a price increase in that segment. We've not determined it yet. And we believe that it's going to be most likely around mid-year. So we don't have a number for you at this moment, but of course, I mean, we will announce it as soon as possible. Okay. Good morning, Alejandro. And again, thanks for your question. If I understood you correctly, a little bit of context on our priorities on execution, and how that translates to the capital allocation. So yeah, first for us really is to keep the existing network and plans in the best shape possible. So executing in our maintenance topics is key and critical because that allows us to be the supplier of choice and really be the solution provider in a still very dynamic market. So that's top priority. Second, I would say the execution of Odessa. You saw our World Cup excess increase for this year, 2024, and you really have great momentum on the Odessa project, so we expect a good execution. A large portion of that guided $400 million will be executed to build Odessa, so that's very important for us. And then the third one that I would mention within the existing operation is further strengthening the logistics network and really taking advantage of what we have built and really optimizing that. And there are small optimization investments around some of our plans. So if you move that forward, growth, as we have said in previous calls, M&A is our top priority, M&A to men's United States. That's where the next level of CAPEX allocation will go for growth. And then a more and more important element of our capital growth will be around sustainability. We have some important initiatives and projects in the works, as we mentioned. We'll talk more about that in detail later in the year, but we have reserved some CAPEX there to work on, for example, carbon capture pilots, further enhancing, again, the alternative fuel opportunities and blended cement.

So those would be the highlights and kind of priorities how we look at capital allocation.

Thank you both. That was very clear, and congratulations on the numbers.

Thank you, Alejandra.

Our next question is from Silvia Diago with Attu Assets. Please proceed.

Yes, hi, it's Sylvia from Idaho Asset. Hi, Enrique, Mike, and Saori. I have a couple of questions. One strategic question, which is, are you guys, how are you thinking about the use of your ample balance sheet resources in terms of M&A? Are you open to a transformational acquisition, a large acquisition in the U.S., or are you thinking more about bolt-on acquisitions? I mean, you definitely have a lot of space in your balance sheet. And then I have a couple other questions, if you don't mind.

Hi, Silvia. This is Enrique. Thanks for the question.

Well, I think we're very firm and committed to, I mean, our strategy, and as Mike described, it's to continue looking for growth in the U.S. market, and within the U.S. market, first priority is cement. But as we said last year, we're now opening up the scope also to other materials like aggregates. So capital, I mean, in M&As want to be obviously directed to cement first and aggregates also as a new priority for us. And we also said that we're moving forward from investing not only exclusively in the current network, but open also to see if there are opportunities in other markets where we can start, I mean, a second network within the U.S. In terms of, I mean, how we will use, I mean, the cash, of course, I mean, this will be, I mean, mostly finance, I mean, with debt and cash from our balance sheet. And we're very careful and very conservative, as you know. I mean, maintaining investment rate for us is the top priority. So we will continue to work on M&A projects with that in mind. I want to be very open and transparent. We've been working last year very diligently on that M&A space. and have been actively engaging with other companies in that effort. We're currently doing it and plan to continue doing it permanently in 2024. So things are aligned according to this study that I'm describing, which could be growing in 2024 through those efforts.

Got it. Thank you, Enrique. But are we talking about a bolt-on, a series of bolt-ons, or are you potentially considering something big, transformational, which perhaps could require a listing in the US, or not? But what are you thinking in terms of size and risk? Because for us, transformational acquisitions could be good, but they could also pose a lot of risk.

We're open to both alternatives, Silvia. Of course, Bolton has been in the past. I mean, what has made us very successful, so we are not going to forget about that and continue our efforts. I mean, talking to prospects within the region of plans that we can connect, I mean, synergistically to our network, having said that, and we know, I mean, plans in the U.S. will continue to be in demand, in high demand, and And so we are now open to do, I mean, also transformational, I mean, M&A projects, probably sometimes in combination with other companies that will be, I mean, looking for the same thing that we're looking. So we are pretty much open to any alternative in the U.S. relationship.

Okay, perfect. If I could see one more. Sorry. Can I continue with one more?

Go ahead, please.

Okay, perfect. On your comments on the lack of energy infrastructure in Juarez, could you keep more color? Are we talking about a one-off, a blackout, or are we talking about a situation that is more structural and could potentially become a recurring problem in Juarez?

Yes, we had a couple of projects in the forest in the new construction of our Maquilada plants and industrial buildings that were delayed from this year, from the last quarter of 2023 and have moved to 2024 because those developers are expecting a connection from CFE in the power supply. Since CFE apparently was not ready with the request for this, I mean, developers, they decided not to invest this year but to invest next year when they were, I mean, closer to having the power supply. So this is, as we understand it, in this case, just a delay on those two projects, and that's what we were referring to in terms of, I mean, a slowdown in some of the construction of industrial buildings and infrastructure in Florida during the fourth quarter of 2023.

Thank you very much, Enrique. Thank you, Silvia.

Our next question is from Frederico De Glaci with TRG. Please proceed.

Hi, guys. Thank you for the time and congrats for the results. Two questions. The first one is some of your U.S. competitors have been talking about that they believe that the residential market in U.S. is close to the bottom. Do you agree with these comments? And the second one, if you can give us some comments on how is the new capacity, if the CAPEX will continue to grow next year, if there are some delays, et cetera, et cetera.

Federico, very good morning. This is Enrique.

On your question about the residential marketing valve, Well, it's always a little bit of adjustment called, right? I mean, if the market, I mean, touch bottom or not. My personal opinion is that we're, I mean, if not there, very close to there, and that we would, I mean, see certainly potential for growth from that level up. As we said, I mean, it seems like a mortgage rate tower is starting to react positively towards that, I mean, and we expect no further decreases in that segment. But on the other hand, we think that the potential for growth starts now. And with obviously variations within markets, as we said, Denver is probably the market that has been within our markets, probably the one that has suffered a little bit more or going deeper. However, I mean, I spent a lot of time in Denver and I... And I'll tell you, there's no inventory of houses, and there's still a lot of demand for houses. So I think that that combined with, I mean, the potential 10-minute interest rate is going to motivate also, I mean, builders to get, I mean, a little bit more aggressive on the market. How is the second question now for Mike? Hi, Federico. Good morning. So Catholic Execution, you know, we are really laser-focused to... to continue a very strong execution there for, like I said, the maintenance earlier, but also for the growth projects. And of course, the important one for us is Odessa. You know, we're right on track from a critical path and a construction path perspective. So that's why we're very convinced that this year will be a strong year of execution there to get that done. And then the other projects that I mentioned briefly, you know, around the distribution network around our energy or alternative fuel project. Here again, we have more people on staff to work on those, to execute those. So we're pretty good positioned to really have a strong year on that. And again, set the company up for further growth within 24, but then also beyond. So we're pretty positive on the execution of CapEx.

Okay, great. Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question and answer session. I'll turn the floor back over to Ms. Ogeshi for closing comments.

Thank you, everyone. We appreciate everyone taking the time today to join us and for your interest in GCC. We look forward to speaking with all of you soon.

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.