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Good morning, and thank you all for joining our first quarter 2022 conference call.
It is report that Grupo Aval has retained an interest stake of approximately 17.2% in BHI, representing a proportional interest in the 25% equity stake in BHI retained by Banco de Bogota. This interest in BHI is reported as discontinued operations for reporting periods prior to the spin-off, including for the full period in the three months ended March 31, 2022, and will be reported under the Share of Profit of Equity Accounted Investees Net of Tax Equity Method line item for subsequent periods. As a result, for comparability purposes, we have prepared and present supplemental unaudited pro forma financial information for the three months ended March 31st, 2021. And the three months ended December 31st, 2021 that assumes a spinoff was completed on January 1st, 2021 and October 1st, 2021 respectively. The supplemental unaudited pro forma financial information does not purport to be indicative of our results of operations or financial position had the relevant transactions occurred on the date assumed and does not protect our results of operations or financial position for any future period or date. The pro forma financial information is unaudited and the completion of the external audit for the year ended December 31st, 2022 may result in adjustments to the unaudited pro forma financial information presented herein. Any such adjustments may be material. This report includes forward-looking statements. In some cases, you can identify these forward-looking statements by words such as may, will, should, expects, plans, anticipates, believes, estimates, predicts, potential, or continue, or the negative of these and other comparable words. Actual results and events may differ materially from those anticipated herein as a consequence of changes in general economic and business conditions, changes in interest and currency rates, and other risks described from time to time in our filings with the Registro Nacional de Valores y Emisores and the SEC. Recipients of this document are responsible for the assessment and use of the information provided herein. Matters described in this presentation and our knowledge of them may change extensively and materially over time, but we expressly disclaim any obligation to review, update, or correct the information provided in this report included any forward-looking statements and do not intend to provide any update for such material developments prior to our next earnings report. The content in this document and the figures included herein are intended to provide a summary of the subjects discussed rather than a comprehensive description. When applicable in this document, we refer to billions as thousands of millions. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Luis Carlos Sarmiento Gutiérrez, Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Sarmiento Gutiérrez, you may begin.
Good morning, and thank you all for joining our first quarter 2022 conference call. As always, it is my pleasure to share with you our strong financial results for the quarter that ended on March 31st. Of significance, this quarter saw the execution of the BHI spin-off that we announced on September 15 of last year. The quarter was also marked by Colombia's strong growth and by that continued positive trend in our subsidiary's performances. As I usually do, I will provide an overview of Colombia's macro scenario. I will then describe in more detail the spin-off. followed by a quick update of the status of our clients' pandemic-driven loan reliefs, our digital efforts, and the main highlights of our financial performance. Starting with an overview of the macro environment, this quarter was dominated by an increasingly challenging global economic environment and, as I mentioned before, a strong Colombian economy. Needless to say, far from being devoid of domestic challenges. As we all know, global economic prospects continue to be adversely affected. Primarily, the Ukraine-Russia conflict has added inflationary pressures to the commodity markets and particularly to the energy and agricultural sectors. In addition, a new wave of lockdowns in China has further disrupted global supply chains. And last but not least, a faster monetary policy normalization possibility in the U.S. has induced increased pressure on foreign exchange and reduced leeway for domestic monetary policy. As a result, on April, the IMF revised down its forecast of global GDP growth for 2022 to 3.6%, down from 4.4%. In contrast, growth prospects in Colombia continue to be constructive, despite the global scenario and the heightened uncertainty around the upcoming presidential elections. For starters, low-frequency data suggests that the economic recovery has continued its path during 2022. In fact, the Colombian economy grew 8.5% or 8.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis during the first quarter of this year. In more detail, from the supply side, 10 of the 12 sectors representing 79.8% of GDP expanded. The most dynamic relevant sectors were commercial activities that grew 15%, manufacturing that grew 9.1%, and government services that grew 6.2%. Nonetheless, recreation and entertainment, which represents 3.6% of GDP, grew 35.4%. Sectors that contracted in the first quarter included agriculture and financial services. These account for 5.9% and 4.4% of GDP, respectively. We stay very vigilant of these results as we set our loan growth strategy accordingly. From the demand side, private consumption increased 12% and government spending 8.6%. Gross capital formation expanded 8.1% over the same period, driven by strong investment on machinery and equipment. Accordingly, we have raised our estimate of the country's GDP growth and now expect it to be in the 5% area. The IMF expects a 5.8% growth figure, while market consensus forecasts a GDP growth close to 4.7% in 2022. Furthermore, the labor market continues to improve. The unemployment rate fell 12.1% in March 2022 from 14.7% in March 2021, after 1.6 million jobs were created. As our recovery process continues, we expect additional gains in the payroll numbers and a further decline in the unemployment rate to an average in the 11% area, down from 15.9% in 2020 and 13.8% in 2021. We still expect an exchange rate closer to the 3,800 pesos per dollar area during the second semester of the year, supported by the surge of oil prices in international markets and by healthy amounts of remittances flowing into the country. These positives, however, are contrasted by a substantial trade balance deficit that does not seem to correct with time. Additionally, during the last few days, the peso has weakened north of 4,000 pesos per dollar as a result of market jitters regarding the path of interest rates in the U.S. Also, preoccupations surrounding the outcome of local elections are likely to keep the exchange rate for the next month or so at the 3,900 to 4,100 pesos per dollar range. As of April, 12-month inflation reached 9.2%, a new high since 2000. Food inflation that accounts for approximately 15% of inflation reached a 12-month high of 26.2%. The increase in consumer prices continued to be driven by supply factors. In fact, monthly inflation registered during April was 1.25%, driven by a 2.8% increase in food prices. Inflation expectations for the remainder of 2022 have continued to rise, driven the central bank to increase its inflation forecast to 7%. Given domestic and imported inflationary pressures, we anticipate that 12-month inflation could reach 7.5% by year's end. In this context, the central bank will continue its normalization of monetary policy in 2022. The repo rate is currently at 6% after a 100 basis point hike during the last meeting in April. If inflation behaves as expected, we believe that the tightening cycle will continue until the second semester, resulting in rate hikes of between 50 and 100 basis points before June 30, and additional rate hikes of 50 to 100 basis points in the third quarter up to a possible 8% before year-end. We continue to expect the current account deficit to hover around 4.8% of GDP in 2022, improving from the 5.7% observed at the end of 2021, mainly driven by higher oil prices and increased crude and coal production levels. On the fiscal front, the government expects a deficit of 6.2% of GDP in 2022, an improvement versus the 7.1% recorded in 2021, based on the ongoing economic recovery and additional revenues from taxes and oil exports. Tax revenue in April grew 36.2% in annual terms, reaching 37.3% of the collection target set for the whole year. However, the government's medium-term fiscal outlook remains challenging, considering that its goal is to reduce the primary fiscal deficit by 230 basis points from 3.4% in 2022 to 1.1% in 2023. Reaching this goal will require either a reduction in public spending or a new tax bill. Moving on, as you're probably aware, on March 29th, we completed the spin-off of 75% of Buck Holding International Core, or BHI. As mentioned in our previous calls, two were the main motivations to execute the spin-off. Firstly, because of BAC's success and also due to the devaluation of the Colombian peso, BAC had grown to be the size of Banco de Bogota, causing a disruption in the ability to set strategies for the bank in Colombia. We believe that separating the Banco de Bogota and BAC operations will strengthen their respective strategic positions, allowing them to capture future growth and to adapt to the local market dynamics more quickly through more efficient capital, fiscal, and regulatory structures. Secondly, we believe that spinning off BHI from Group Aval will unlock value for our shareholders by allowing both shares to trade independently and on their own merits. These are some of the results of the spin-off. Our exposure to Central America fell from 37% of Aval's total consolidated assets in December 2021 to 7% of our total assets as of March 31st. Our Panamanian exposure is now limited primarily to multi-bank, which was not spun off and is still owned 100% by Banco de Bogota. On the day of the spin-off, our consolidated assets decreased by 111.2 trillion pesos. Our consolidated net loans decreased by 69.8 trillion pesos. And our consolidated deposits decreased by 83.8 trillion pesos. Banco de Bogotá's and Grupo Aval's total shareholders' equity decreased by 9.66 trillion pesos, Grupo Aval's attributable equity decreased by 6.64 trillion pesos, and our minority interest decreased by 3.02 trillion pesos. It is important to note that of the 9.66 trillion pesos equity reduction, Only 3.56 trillion pesos was tangible equity, while 6.1 trillion pesos was intangible equity. To strengthen both Grupo Aval's and Banco de Bogotá's capital structures, both shareholder meetings approved the distribution of dividends in shares or cash at the option of the shareholders. 90% of Aval's dividend was accepted to be paid in shares. We expect a similar percentage of Banco de Bogota's dividend to be paid in shares as well. We booked $720 billion of extraordinary attributable net income from the realization of certain OCI accounts as a byproduct of the spin-off. As announced, the capitalization ratios of Banco de Bogota after the spin-off remained at a similar level to those at year-end 2021 despite the headwinds from a depreciation of the fixed income portfolio due to rising rates, and an increase in risk-weighted assets derived from operational risk as part of the migration to Basel III. Finally, as of May 17th, the sum of the prices of the shares of Grupo Aval and BHI was 1,126 pesos, approximately 12% higher than the price for Grupo Aval before the spinoff. During the same period, the cold cap has lost 2.9% of its value. As of March, active debt reliefs in Colombia amounted to approximately 4% of the total consolidated loan portfolio, and active debt reliefs in Panama, mainly multibank, amounted to approximately 2% of the total consolidated loan portfolio. Of all loans that have concluded the relief period, less than 1% are currently past due 90 days or more, and 1.4% are currently past due 30 days or more. Let's move on to digital, where these are some noteworthy numbers regarding our digital strategy. Over the last year, our active digital clients grew approximately 45% from 2.6 million at the end of March of 2021 to 3.8 million on March 31st, 2022. 60% of all sales of retail products that have digitalized solutions were conducted digitally. Our banks sold over 500,000 digital products during the first quarter of this year, an increase of 54% versus the first quarter of 2021. Our recently improved mobile banking apps and personal banking platform reached a 57% digital adoption. We expect to have closer to 65% by year's end. Campaigns using advanced analytics developed based on our unified database platform, Augusta, have been able to increase by 22% the use of credit cards and improve by approximately 10% the recovery of written off-loans. The amount of qualified credit leads for our banks increased over 3.5 times since the implementation of our first mobility ecosystem initiative, Carroya. Finally, with the collaboration of the consulting company McKinsey, we have revamped our digital payment strategy and expect to launch it in the second half of this year. Regarding our financial results, Diego will refer next in detail to all our financial performance in the first quarter of 2022. However, I would highlight the following. I believe that having spun off 75% of BHI will allow Banco de Bogota to focus on its Colombian operation and will more transparently allow us to present our results without the resulting complexity that foreign exchange usually places on asset growth, coverage, strategies, and regulatory capital. This quarter yielded an excellent attributable net income number of approximately 1.73 trillion pesos. As I mentioned before, the number includes an extraordinary gain of 0.72 trillion pesos resulting from the realization of certain OCI accounts as a byproduct of the spin-off. Because the spin-off took place at the end of the quarter, the 1.73 trillion pesos number also includes a full quarter of BHI's net income for approximately 0.37 trillion pesos. What's exciting to me is that stripping the quarter's attributable net income of the extraordinary gain and also of the additional net income related to the 75% of BHI, which will not be a part of our attributable net income going forward, the resulting pro forma attributable net income is similar to the net income achieved in some of the best quarters that we have posted in the past years. when we achieved our best historical results, including the 100% of BHI. Obviously, this is only an estimation and in no way a prediction, but in any case, it gives us a reason for satisfaction. Tricky times are ahead of us in any case. The economy is currently moving in the right direction, but inflation is looming dark over our heads. Monetary policy will eventually contribute to moderate that worrisome economic statistic but it is yet to be seen what effect the remedy to inflation will have over GDP growth and over loan quality. Also, we have yet to see the final consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the time it will ultimately take to fully restore the supply chain. Locally, it is no secret that the upcoming elections might, at least for a period of time, alter the way we're accustomed to doing business. We are, however, strong believers in this country's ability to move forward. I thank you for your attention, and now I'll pass on the presentation to Diego.
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