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under IFRS conference call. My name is Richard, and I will be your operator for today's call. Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A., Grupo Aval, is an issuer of securities in Colombia and the United States, SEC. As such, it is subject to compliance with securities regulation in Colombia and applicable U.S. securities regulation. Grupo Aval is also subject to the inspection and supervision of the Superintendency of Finance as holding company of the Aval Financial Conglomerate. The consolidated financial information included in this document is presented in accordance with IFRS as currently issued by the IASB. Details of the calculations of non-IFRS measures, such as ROAA and ROAE, among others, are explained when required in this report. Bangladesh executed a spinoff of a 75% equity stake in BAC Holding International Corp., BHI, to its shareholders, and Grupo Val subsequently spun off its equity interest to its shareholders on March 29, 2022. Prior to the spinoff, Banco de Bogota was the direct parent of BHI. Grupo Val has retained an indirect stake of approximately 17.2% in BHI, representing a proportional interest in the 25% equity stake in BHI retained by Banco de Bogota. This interest in BHI is reported as discontinued operations for reporting periods prior to the spinoff and will be reported under the Share of Profit of Equity Accounted Investees Net of Tax Equity Method line item for subsequent periods. As a result, for comparability purposes, we have prepared and present a supplemental, unaudited pro forma financial information for the nine months ended September 30, 2021, that assumes the spinoff was not completed on January 1, 2021. The supplemental, unaudited pro forma financial information does not purport to be indicative of our results of operations or financial position had the relevant transactions occurred on the dates assumed and does not project our results of operations or financial position for any future period or date. The pro forma financial information is unaudited and the completion of the external audit for the year ended December 31, 2022 and may result in adjustments to the unaudited pro forma financial information presented herein, and any such adjustments may be material. This report includes forward-looking statements. In some cases, you can identify these forward-looking statements by words such as may, will, should, expects, plans, anticipates, believes, estimates, predicts, potential, or continue statements. or the negative of these and other comparable words. Actual results and events may differ materially from those anticipated herein as a consequence of changes in general, economic and business conditions, changes in interest and currency rates, and other risks described from time to time in our filings with the Registro Nacional de Valores y Emisores and the SEC. Recipients of this document are responsible for the assessment and use of the information provided herein. Matters described in this presentation and our knowledge of them may change extensively and materially over time, but we expressly disclaim any obligation to review, update, or correct the information provided in this report, including any forward-looking statements, and do not intend to provide an update for such material developments prior to our next earnings report. The content of this document and the figures included herein are intended to provide a summary of the subjects discussed rather than a comprehensive description. When applicable, in this document, we refer to billions as thousands of millions. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the call over to Mr. Luis Carlos Sarmiento Gutierrez, Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Luis Carlos Sarmiento Gutierrez, you may begin.
Good morning, and thank you all for joining this quarter's conference call. Before Diego provides a detailed look at our numbers, I will provide an overview of Colombia's macro scenario, followed by a quick update of our digital efforts and a few highlights of our financial performance. Let's start with a macroeconomic scenario. To begin with, during the third quarter, the world continued to be characterized by resilient inflation and contracting monetary policies, of which Colombia was no exception. Due to the combination of these macroeconomic circumstances, the effects of the war in Ukraine, the energy market, the constraint of global supply chains, and the weaker economic performance of China, the largest economies of the world significantly slowed down during 2022. In contrast, Colombia distinguished itself because of its robust continued GDP growth. Having said that, a significant deceleration seems unavoidable for next year. In fact, The IMF estimates that there is a 25% chance that 2023 global growth will fall below 2% and even one third of the world's economies are at risk of slipping into recession. But for the time being, the IMF foresees global GDP growth moderating from 6.1% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023. In contrast, Colombia is expected to grow at over twice the global average during 2022, but slower in 2023. Colombia's GDP grew 7.1% during the third quarter of 2022 when compared to the same quarter of last year, and 1.6% on a quarterly basis. This performance was explained by the strength of private consumption, which grew 7.8% and represented 74% of GDP. From the demand side, the most dynamic relevant sectors were commercial activities that grew 7.9%, manufacturing that grew 7.3%, and to a lesser degree, recreation and entertainment and construction and communications. The IMF now expects that Colombia's growth for 2022 will rise to 7.6%, revised upward from 6.3% in July. It also expects a deceleration to 2.2% in 2023. The Columbia Central Bank adjusted its 2022 projection to 7.9% from 6.9% and reduced the projection for 2023 to 0.5% from 0.7%. We now anticipate GDP growth between 7% and 7.5% in 2022, and between 1.7% and 2% for 2023. The labor market has also continued to improve, and the jobs gap caused by the pandemic has now practically disappeared. In September, the national unemployment rate reached 10.7%, 120 basis points better than September 2021, while the average unemployment rate during the third quarter was 10.8% compared to 11% during the second quarter. and 12.6% a year earlier. In this context, we expect the annual unemployment rate to fall to an average of 10.5% to 11% at year's end. Colombia, as the rest of the world, has been disrupted by two-digit inflation, which has triggered steep interest rate increases by the central bank. Furthermore, A recent acceleration in Colombia's inflation has been primarily boosted by higher food prices. In fact, 12-month inflation reached 12.22% in October, the highest it has been in over 20 years. Food inflation is running above 27% on an annual basis, mainly because of the prices of fertilizers, bad weather, and the depreciation of the peso that weighs heavily on the price of imports, logically, including agricultural imports. On the other hand, rent prices, which accounted for around 25% of total inflation, have experienced a moderate increase. In this context, we anticipate that 12-month inflation could reach 11.7% by year's end and 6.8% in 2023. As mentioned, the central bank has conducted a string of repo rate increases up to 11% in October, a combined total increase of 925 basis points since September 2021. Considering the persistence of inflation, we don't rule out the possibility of one additional hike of 100 basis points in December, which would bring the year-end rate to 12%. Even though interest rate could remain high for some time to re-anchor inflation expectations within targets. The central bank should begin to reduce rates during 2023 as inflation begins to recede. Monetary policy adjustments of central banks around the world, the risk of recession in the world's main economies, and the escalation of the geopolitical conflict in Europe have led to a strengthening of the global exchange rate. In Colombia, just recently, the rate peaked at 5,100 pesos per dollar, representing a 28% devaluation since the end of 2021. However, it has currently retreated to 4,900 pesos per dollar or 23% devaluation for the year. This volatility, no doubt, also reflects specific market concerns regarding the vulnerabilities of the Colombian economy, in particular its trade balance, its dependence on external financing in the context of higher borrowing costs, as well as uncertainty regarding potential policy shifts promoted by the incoming administration. During August, Colombia's trade balance registered a record high $2.2 billion deficit despite a 66% recovery in oil exports on an annual basis. Market consensus suggests that the country could end the year with a current account deficit wider than 5% of GDP. To attenuate the volatility, in recent days, in an above phase of a previous statement, the government mentioned the possibility of signing new oil contracts depending on the country's economic conditions. In addition, The agreement by Congress on the 2022 tax reform, soon to become law, should contribute to reduce the fiscal deficit. The reform is now expected to increase tax billings by 15 to 20 trillion pesos, down from the original expectation of 25 trillion. It includes a surcharge for the oil and coal sector, which accounts for nearly half of the expected revenue, a surcharge for the hydroelectric sector, and an increase of two additional percentage points on the surcharge for the financial sector, which will now be 5%. On the fiscal front, the government now expects a deficit of 5.6% of GDP in 2022, an improvement versus the 7.1% recorded in 2021 and the 6.5% initially forecasted, reflecting the strong economic rebound and the positive effect of higher oil prices and tax collections. In fact, tax revenue grew 29.2% as of September 2022 when compared to September 2021. This improved fiscal scenario could contribute to a lower ratio of net public debt to GDP of 56.5% by year-end, down from 61% at the end of 2021. Moving on, these are some numbers regarding our digital strategy. At the end of September, digital customers of Avalit's banks totaled slightly less than $5 million, while new accounts of our digital wallet, Dale, have started to ramp up and are now at approximately $600,000. Dale has also successfully closed several banking as a service agreements, including the LifeMiles Pay Wallet, Vita Wallet from Chile, the fintech Wallo, which specializes in collections and payments, and through all, a fintech that will provide working capital microcredit. Our banks sold over 1.7 million digital products in the first nine months of the year, an increase of 52% versus the first nine months of 2021. Our total digital share continues around 60%. PDL ratios of our digital loan portfolio are approximately 60% better than PDL ratios of our traditional portfolio. Digital transactions represented almost 70% of total transactions and increased by 50% over the year. In the same period, transactions conducted in our branches decreased 12.5%. Since we launched our first mobility ecosystem initiative, Carroya, memberships have increased by 17x, qualified credit leads increased by 1.9x, and the leads to disbursements conversion rate quadrupled. In September, we launched our housing digital ecosystem, Metro Cuadrado, which is currently the second largest real estate portal of Colombia with more than 1,200 affiliated real estate agencies, and construction companies and around 250,000 houses listed for sale and rent. The use of advanced analytic platforms applied to our client management activity has improved marketing spending effectiveness and increased client lifetime value. Matilda, for example, has reduced our customer acquisition cost of retail customers below traditional acquisition channels such as Facebook and Google, materially increasing marketing spending effectiveness. Campaigns ran on our other platform, Augusta, our data lake platform, achieved a 24% increase in the use of credit cards in clients with high attrition risk. Augusta has yielded improvements of approximately 10% in recovery of written off loans. Finally, in a minute, Diego will refer in detail to our financial performance during the third quarter of 2022 and provide guidance for 2023. But before that, I would highlight the following. This third quarter was characterized by satisfactory growth of our loan portfolio and by improving loan quality. However, we did run into some headwinds. First, while the current contractionary monetary policy serves to quickly reprice the loan portfolios of our mostly commercial lending banks, Bogotá and Occidente, faster than the rise in their cost of funds, The same effect squeezes interest rate margins in our two mostly retail lending banks, Avevillas and Popular. It obviously takes longer for the consumer loan portfolios of these banks to reprice. And in the meantime, the cost of funds of their deposit bases, mostly savings accounts and time deposits, increase faster than the rates of its loan portfolios. Secondly, fixed-rate investments not classified as health to maturity also suffer the consequences of rising yield curves via P&L or OCI accounts. Thirdly, although Corfe Colombiana's infrastructure projects contributed handsomely to the non-financial sector results, and in fact grew by almost 75% versus a year ago, its contribution was almost 275 billion pesos less when compared to the second quarter of this year, principally due to inflation accounting. Fourthly, personnel expenses were affected by the implementation of salary adjustments derived from the negotiation with banking unions and from the accrual and payment of employee bonuses across the group as a result of last year's excellent financial results. Finally, the effective income tax rate during the quarter was almost 30% higher than last quarter's income tax rate, mainly because of the sources of pre-tax income. However, we will continue to navigate through this challenging environment, deploying cost control initiatives, designing new investment portfolio strategies, maintaining loan pricing discipline, looking for mitigants in the cost of deposits, and continuing to invest in advanced analytics, payment strategies, and digital transformation, improving our customers' experiences and the effectiveness of our sales and marketing efforts. With that, I thank you for your attention, and I pass on the presentation to Diego.
Thank you, Ms. Carlos. Beginning on page seven, on comparable basis, assets grew 3.5% during the quarter and 14.6% year on year. Over the quarter, loans gained share in the mix given the strong growth experienced, while cash lost share in the mix due to the payment of our $1 billion bond last September. Moving to page eight, we present the evolution of our loans on comparable basis. Gross loans grew 5.1% during the quarter and 16.5% over the year, the highest figure since we adopted IFRS in 2015, and the second highest quarterly growth, slightly below the 5.8% registered during the COVID-19 pandemic hit in first quarter 2020. Commercial loans a growth reached a 4.5% over the quarter and accelerated to 15.4% year-on-year. Consumer loans grew 5.8% over the quarter and 17.3% year-on-year. Personal loans had the strongest dynamism, growing at 10.9% in the quarter and 29.2% year-on-year, recovering from the room lost during the two years of pandemic. This increase in risk appetite followed the end of relief's positive trends in credit quality and a strong macro environment over the past few quarters. Automobile loans, credit cards, and payroll loans grew 7%, 5.9%, and 3.8% over the quarter, taking annual growths to 18.3%, 16.4%, and 13.6% respectively. Parallel loans still constitute most of the consumer loan portfolio with 57.7% of the total, followed by personal loans and credit cards with 21.5% and 11.5% respectively. Parallel loans represent 8.9% of our consumer book. Finally, mortgages expanded 6.8% over the quarter and 21.4% year-on-year. We expect loan growth to moderate in 2023, driven by lower inflation and GDP growth, higher average interest rates, and a softer economic outlook both locally and globally. On pages 9 and 10, we present several loan portfolio quality ratios on a comparable basis. As we had anticipated, the quality of our loan portfolios continued improving measured both by stages and by PELs, resulting in a stable cost of risk over the quarter. Stage 1 loans now represent 86.3% of our gross loans, improving from 81.7% and 84.3% 12 and 3 months earlier. The portion of Stage 2 and Stage 3 loans continued improving over the quarter in all of our loan portfolios as reliefs continued expiring, credit risk overlays were progressively removed, and charge-offs occurred. Regarding the link frequencies, 90-day PDLs fell to 3.23%, a 57 basis points improvement over 12 months, and 10 basis points improvement over three months. 30-day PDLs fell to 4.33%, a 64 basis points improvement over 12 months, and five basis points over three months. Cost of risk net of recoveries was relatively stable over the year, and the quarter at 1.36%. Finally, the ratio of charge-offs to average 90-day PDLs was 0.63 times. On page 11, we present funding and deposit evolution on comparable basis. Funding growth during the quarter was close to that of our loans, maintaining a stable deposit to net loans ratio of 99%. Deposits, which account for 70% of our funding, increased 4.1% during the quarter, and 14.4% a year, driven by growth in time deposit that favors the sterility of funding. On page 12, we present the evolution of our total and attributable equity and the capital and equity ratio of our banks as reported. Our total equity grew 3.3% over the quarter, while our attributable equity increased 2.1%, driven by the contribution of net income. annual decreases of our equity reflect the spin-off of 75% of PHI in March 2022. Solvency ratios slightly fell in some of our banks due to the increase in risk-weighted assets resulting from strong loan growth and the lower valuations of our investment portfolios through OCI derived from the acute increase in interest rates described by the status. On page 13, we present our yield and loans, cost of funds, spreads, and NIM on comparable basis. Our overall NIM fell 12 basis points to 3.52% during the quarter, driven by a compression of our NIM on loans and a negative NIM on investments. During the quarter, Columbia Central Bank increased its reference rate by 250 basis points from 7.5% to 10% in an effort to anchor expectations amidst inflationary pressures. In addition, the speed at which monetary policy is transmitted to cost of funds has been substantially faster during this cycle relative to the past rate increase cycles due to recently increased requirements of long-term funding to comply with the net stability funding ratio, CEFEN in Spanish, introduced by the migration of Colombia to Basel III. The magnitude and speed of the current interest rate cycle has compressed the name of retained loans due that some of the higher credit quality loans such as payroll loans are priced at fixed rates. We expect this pressure to receive during the second half of 2023 as funding prices fall driven by the reduction in the central bank intervention rate and as fixed rate loans continue repricing up. Meanwhile, we expect the pressure on NIM on our fixed-rate retail portfolio to persist over the next few quarters. In this context, NIMM loans in our banking segment contracted 30 basis points through the quarter. In addition, the higher funding cost of our non-financial activity resulted in an overall NIMM loans of 4.55% contracting 36 basis points during the quarter. Bear in mind that the increase in interest expenses associated with the funding of our nonfinancial activity was offset by a strong performance of the nonfinancial sector presented on the following page that benefits from inflation. Tailwinds on our commercial lending activity that reprises promptly from a hawkish monetary policy led to a 31 basis points, quarter of quarter increase in NIMA and commercial loans, while headwinds under NIMA and retail loans that have longer repricing periods and take longer to benefit from this environment contracted 127 basis points quarter on quarter. NIMA investments was negative 0.65% from the quarter, impacted by the performance of mark-to-market fixed income and in a rising rate environment. Neiman Investment includes the performance of our investments held by Cordenir under the mandatory stabilization reserve. On page 14, we present net fees and other income on comparable basis. Gross fee income increased 1.8% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter. Net fee income decreased 3.3% year-on-year and increased 7.1% quarter-on-quarter. As mentioned on our last poll, pension fund fees decreased due to lower performance-based fees and higher insurance premiums associated with the increasing mortality rates during the pandemic. Income from the non-financial sector remains strong, although softer than a particularly high second quarter. As mentioned in the past, Financial assets from our concession agreements benefit from higher inflation and the depreciation of the Colombian pesos. Other income decreased during the quarter, mainly because of the softer results of PHI, as the appreciation of the Costa Rican colon and the increase impairment losses following the end of reliefs in Panama negatively impacted U.S. denominated results. The depreciation of the average peso rate over the quarter partially offset this performance. On page 15, we present some efficiency ratios on comparable basis. Cost to assets had a slight increase over the quarter and remained flat versus a year earlier at 2.7%. Cost to income increased to 47.7%, driven by softer results from our non-financial sector relative to a particularly strong result during the second quarter. and by a compression in our Lehman retail loans. Quarterly expenses increased 14.6% relative to third quarter of 2021, with personnel expenses increasing 8.8% and administrative expenses increasing 21%, pressed by increases in operating taxes, particularly the industry and commerce municipal taxes, and by a depreciation of 14%, of the quarterly average exchange rate that mainly affects IT-related OPEX in Colombia and overall expenses in MFG. Quarterly expenses grew 6.8% driven by personal expenses that grew 8% as salary adjustments and annual bonuses were recognized in some of our companies during this quarter. Administrative expenses grew 7.7% over the quarter. Finally, on page 16, we present our net income and profitability ratios as reported. Attributable net income for the quarter was $408 billion, or 17.2% pesos per share. Our return on average assets and our return on average equity for the quarter were 1.3% and 9.8% respectively. Before we move into questions, I will now summarize our general guidance for 2022 first. We expect 2022 loan growth to be in the 16% area with commercial loans growing at 15% and retail loans at 17%. We expect our cost of risk net of recoveries to be in the 1.45% area. We expect full year NIM to be in the three and three quarters area with NIM and loans in the four and three quarters area. We expect cost to assets to be in the 2.6% area. We expect our fee income ratio to be in the 18% area. We expect our non-financial sector to be 1.2 times that of 2021. Finally, we expect our full-year reported return on average equity to be in the 18% area. Bear in mind that this return includes extraordinary income from the consolidation of 75% of PHI. Regarding guidance for 2023, we expect loan growth to be in the 12.5% area with commercial loans growing in the 12% area and retail loans in the 13% area. We expect our cost of risk net of recoveries to slightly increase to 1.5%. We expect full-year NIM to be in the 3.75% to 4% area with NIM on loans in the 4.75% area. Our Neiman Investments is expected to recover to positive ground. We expect cost to assets to slightly fall to be in the 2.5% to 2.6% range. We expect our fee income ratio to be in the 20% area. We expect our non-financial sector to contribute 70% of that contributed in 2022. Finally, we expect our full-year reported return on average equity to be in the 13 to 14% range. We're now open for questions.
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