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spk01: Hello and thank you for standing by. My name is Regina and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Next Point Residential Trust Incorporated fourth quarter 2022 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star 1 again. I would now like to turn the conference over to Kristen Thomas. Please go ahead.
spk03: Thank you. Good day, everyone, and welcome to Next Point Residential Trust's conference call to review the company's results for the fourth quarter of December 31, 2022. On the call today are Brian Mith, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Matt McGrainer, Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer, and Bonner McDermott, Vice President, Asset and Investment Management. As a reminder, this call is being webcast through the company's website at nsrt.nextpoint.com. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that this conference call contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that are based on management's current expectations, assumptions, and beliefs. Listeners should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements and are encouraged to review the company's most recent annual report on Form 10-K and the company's other filings with SEC for a more complete discussion of risk and other factors that could affect any forward-looking statements. The statements made during this conference call speak only as of today's date, and except as required by law, NSRT does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. This conference call also includes an analysis of non-GAAP financial measures for a more complete discussion of these non-GAAP financial measures, see the company's earnings release that was filed earlier today. I would now like to turn the call over to Brian Mitz. Please go ahead, Brian.
spk10: Thank you, Kristen, and welcome to everyone joining us today. We appreciate your time this morning. I'm Brian Mitz, and I'm joined by Matt McGrainer and Bonner McDermott. I'll kick off the call and cover our Q4 and full-year results and highlights, update our NAV calculation, and then provide our initial 2023 guidance. I'll then turn it over to Matt to discuss specifics on the leasing environment and metrics driving our performance for last year, as well as our guidance into the new year and the details on the portfolio. Results for Q4 were as follows. Net income for fourth quarter was $3.8 million, or $0.15 per diluted share. On total revenue, it was $69.3 million. as compared to net income of $38.8 million or $1.50 per diluted share in the same period in 2021 on total revenue of $58.5 million. The fourth quarter NOI was $41.8 million on 40 properties compared to $34.9 million for the fourth quarter of 2021 on 39 properties, which represents a 19.8% increase in NOI. For the quarter, same-store rent increased 17.3%, and same-store occupancy was down 20 basis points to 94.1%. This, coupled with an increase in same-store expenses of 15.3%, which was accentuated by high year-over-year comps on R&M and turnover costs, increased, led to an increase in same-store NOI of 14.4% as compared to Q4 2021. Rates for the fourth quarter of 2022 on the same store portfolio were up 2.1% quarter over quarter. We reported Q4 core FFO of $19.5 million, or $0.75 per deleted share, compared to $0.69 per deleted share in Q4 2021, or an increase of 9% on a per share basis year over year. We continue to execute our value-added business plan by completing 481 full and partial renovations during the quarter and leased 442 renovated units, achieving an average monthly rent premium of $184, which represents a 23.1 percent ROI during the year. In substance to date, in the current portfolios of 1231, we have completed 7,633 full and partial upgrades, 4,718 kitchen laundry appliance installations, and 10,191 technology package installations, resulting in $149, $47, and $45 average monthly rental increase per unit, which represents 22%, 66.9%, and 37.2% ROI, respectively. Results for the full year 2022 were as follows. Net loss for the year ended December 31 with negative $9.3 million or a loss of $0.36 per diluted share, which included a gain on sales of real estate of $14.7 million and $97.6 million of depreciation and amortization expense. This compared to net income of $23 million or income of $0.89 per diluted share for the full year of 2021, which included a gain on sales of real estate of $46.2 million and 86.9 million of depreciation and amortization expense. For the year, NOI was 157.4 million on 40 properties, as compared to 128.8 million on 39 properties for the same period in 2021, representing an increase of 22.3%. For the year, same-store rent increased 17.8%, and same-store occupancy was down 20 basis points to 94.1%. This coupled with an increase in same-store expenses, 11.1 percent, led to an increase in same-store NOI of 16.2 percent as compared to full year 2021. We reported core FFO of 2022 of $81.8 million, or $3.13 per diluted share, compared to $2.43 per diluted share for 2021, which is an increase of 28.9 percent on a per-share basis. Since inception, on a diluted category basis, core FFO has increased 11% annually. For our NAV, based on our current estimate of cap rates in our markets and forward NOI, we reported NAV per share range as follows, $67.46 on the low end, $78.15 on the high end, and $72.80 at the midpoint. These are based on average cap rates ranging from 5% on the low end and 5.3% on the high end, which has increased approximately 65 basis points from last quarter and 148 basis points year-to-date to reflect the rise in interest rates and the observable cap rates in our markets. For the fourth quarter, we paid a dividend of 42 cents per share on December 30th. And since inception, we've increased our dividend 103.9%. For 2022, our dividend was two times covered by core FFO with a payout ratio of 49.8% of core FFO. Finally, before we get to guidance, I'd like to touch on some of our recent activity with dispositions, refinancings, and some subsequent events after year-end. On December 29th, we completed the sale of Hollister Place in Houston for gross proceeds of $36.8 million, representing a cap rate of 4.37%. The gain on sale is $14.7 million, and the net proceeds of $36.5 million were used to pay down the corporate credit facility. During the fourth quarter, the company completed a cash-out refinance on 19 of its properties. The refinance decreased the spread on 17 of the refinanced properties that were previously variable rates by an average spread of approximately 14 basis points. and transitioned two properties that were previously fixed rate mortgages to floating rate mortgages with a spread of 1.55%. Upon completion of the refinancing, the company paid down approximately $260.5 million on the corporate credit facility in the fourth quarter. Additionally, on January 31, 2023, we refinanced the venue on Camelback, which effectively pushed the maturity date of the mortgage from July 1, 2024, to February 1, 2033. Two days later, on February 2nd, the company paid down $17.5 million on the corporate credit facility. These moves strengthened our balance sheet, lowered our financing costs, increased the maturity of our portfolio, and paid down our corporate credit facility, which represents our most expensive capital. Today, the average spread on the floating rate debt is 1.56% over SOFR. Our average maturity of the portfolio is 6.5 years, and as of today, the balance on our corporate credit facility is $57 million. We currently have two properties, Old Farm and Stone Creek at Old Farm, both located in Houston, under contract that we expect to close in the first half of the year. The estimated net proceeds of $63.4 million will be used to pay down the corporate credit facility to zero. Turning to guidance, for 2023, we're issuing initial guidance as follows. Core FFO per diluted share of $3.27 on the high end, $2.92 in the low end, $3.09 at the midpoint. Same-store revenues are 11.9% on the high end, 9.9% on the low end, and 10.9% at the midpoint. Same-store expenses, we estimated 10.3% on the high end, 11.2% on the low end, the midpoint of 10.7%. For same-store NOI, we are guiding to 13% on the high end, 9% on the low end, and 11% at the midpoint. So with that, let me turn it over to Matt.
spk04: Thank you, Brian. Let me start by going over our fourth quarter same-store operational results. Q4 same-store NOI margin improved to 61.6%. That's up 46 basis points over the prior year period. Effective rents showed 11.5% or greater growth in all markets, while same-store average effective rent growth reached 11.5%. Raleigh, Charlotte, Las Vegas, and Atlanta showed somewhat more modest rent growth in the 11.6 to 13.2 range, while we saw stronger year-over-year growth in Phoenix, Dallas, Nashville, and our Florida markets with average effective rent growth in these markets achieving a combined 19.7%. Tampa was our effective rent growth leader for the quarter at 23.3%. Fourth quarter same-store NOI growth was again outstanding with the portfolio averaging 14.4%, driven by 13.8% growth in real revenue and 13.5% growth in total revenues, even though we experienced expense inflation across the board. Operationally, leasing activity and revenue growth showed sustained momentum in the fourth quarter, with nine out of our 10 same-store markets achieving revenue growth of 8.2% or better, the top five being Tampa at 18.8%, South Florida at 17.6%, Atlanta 16.2%, Phoenix 14.9%, and Nashville 14.4%. Renewal conversions were 47% for the quarter, 49.6% for the year, with 7 out of 11 markets executing renewal rate growth of at least 5%, and no markets were under 2. The leaders were Tampa at 10.1%, Orlando at 9.9%, South Florida at 8.8%, DFW at 8.3%, and Raleigh-Durham at 7.6%. On the occupancy front, we're pleased to report that Q4 same-store occupancy remained over 94%. positioning us well for 2023, and as of this morning, the portfolio is 96.3% leased with a healthy 60-day trend of 92%. For the full year, same-store NOI margin improved by 112 basis points to 60%. Same-store average effective rents and revenues each increased by 17.9% and 14%, respectively, and the NOI held strong across most of the portfolio in 22, with eight out of our nine same-store markets growing by at least 11.2%. Notable at same-store NOI growth markets were South Florida, Nashville, and Tampa at 23.8%, 21.2%, and 20.4% respectively. Operationally, the portfolio experienced exceptional revenue growth in 22, with all our markets achieving growth of at least 8% or better. The top five were Tampa at 18.4%, South Florida 16.8, Nashville at 15.9, Phoenix at 15.4, and Orlando at 14.7. Turning to our acquisition activity for 2022. On the buy side, we acquired two assets in April of last year, the Adair in Sandy Springs, Georgia, and Estates on Maryland in Phoenix, Arizona. These purchases added 562 units to our portfolio for a total purchase price of $143.4 million. and provided further opportunity for our rehab pipeline in two of our best performing markets, further enhancing our next four years of growth and earnings profile. On the disposition front, as Brian said, we sold Hollister on December 30th of last year, generating a 13.5% levered IRR, a two times multiple on investment, and approximately 21 million of net proceeds used to pay down the balance on the credit facility. And as previously reported, as Brian just mentioned, we're under contract to sell a farm in Stone Creek for $135 million. These sales will generate a 24.8% levered IRR, a 2.9% multiple on investment, and proceeds of $63.4 million to pay the remaining balance on the credit facility down to zero. Turning to 2023 guidance, as Brian said, we're excited to guide to 9 to 13% in same store with a midpoint of 11%. Across our same store properties, we're forecasting a 10.5 to 12.6 rental income growth comprised of the following components. A 93.5 to 95.1 physical occupancy with peak occupancy model for Q3 and Q4. a 5.9% earned benefit from the outstanding growth and trade-outs we achieved in 2022, a 4% to 5% market rent growth in 2023, with 2.3% realized this year, and an additional 1.4% top-line growth attributable to value-add CapEx spending. This equates to 9.9% to 11.9% total revenue growth. On the expense side, We're forecasting a 7.5% increase in controllable expenses, comprised of a 3.8% increase in R&M and turnover costs, a 10.7% increase in labor, a 3.9% increase in advertising, a 4.9% increase in G&A. And for non-controllables, we're forecasting an increase of 10.3% to 11.2%, comprised of a 3.2% increase in utilities, a 17.7% increase in insurance, and a 12.1% increase in real estate taxes. From a geographical perspective, we're expecting particular strength across the following markets, notwithstanding real estate tax headwinds in most of them. We expect Raleigh to grow same-story OI by 16.5% to 18.5% due to 13% to 15% budget revenue growth, and an interior renovation plan for 132 units targeting $240 rent premiums and a low 20s ROI. We expect South Florida to grow same store NOI by roughly 16 to 18%, driven by 12 to 14% budgeted revenue growth and a continued value-add execution with 242 full interior unit upgrades planned targeting $260 rent premiums and a mid to high teens ROI. We expect Tampa to grow same-store NOI by roughly 15.5% to 17.5%, driven by 13% to 15% budgeted revenue growth, a continued value-add execution with 112 full and partial interior unit upgrades planned, targeting $62 rent premiums here and a low 30s ROI on predominantly lower-spend partial reno. We expect Orlando to grow same-store NOI by roughly 15% to 17%, driven by 13% to 15% budgeted revenue growth, and a continued value-add execution with 107 upgrades planned, $217 average rent premium, and a 20% ROI. And finally, we expect Las Vegas to grow same-store NOI by roughly 14% to 16%, driven by 11% to 13% budget revenue growth, a continued value-add execution on 162 unit upgrades planned, generating $140 average rent premium, and a high teen ROI. All of our other markets are expected to see NOI growth between 7.5% to 11.5%, and we see the same economic tailwinds described in our top performing markets. As you know, we continue to be an internal growth business at our core, and to that end, our guidance includes the following assumptions regarding our value-add programs. We expect to complete 1,370 full interior upgrades at an average cost of $13,150 per unit generating $214 average monthly premium or approximately a 19.5% return on investment. We expect to complete 871 partial interior upgrades at an average cost of $5,250 per unit, generating a $91 average monthly premium or 18.6% ROI. We expect to complete 844 washer-dryer installs at an average cost of $1,030 per unit, generating a $51 average monthly premium or a 47% return on investment. We expect to complete 3,150 additional smart home technology packages, generating a $40 to $45 average monthly premium and a 48.8% return on investment. Now for a brief overview of our 2023 acquisition and disposition guidance. We're assuming zero to $250 million in acquisitions, Obviously, as widely reported with institutional capital largely remaining on the sidelines, there's not been many attractive buying opportunities. Plus, given our cost of capital, we've prioritized balance sheet cleanup, stock repurchases, and internal growth over external growth pursuits. On the disposition front that we've hit a few times here, with the Houston market exit well on its way, again, we expect to complete the disposition of Old Farm and Stone Creek for $135 million of gross proceeds in early Q2. Disposition activity could reach the higher end of our range later in the year if we're able to identify assets that can be accretively added via tax-efficient capital recycling strategy that you guys have seen us do over the past few years. As Brian mentioned, we remain transparent on our NAV. We have adjusted the NAV downward to a midpoint of $72.83 per share. That's using a 5.15 cap rate on 2023 NOI at the midpoint. So in closing so far in 2023, we're off to a good start. We are expecting to see continued strength and resilience in the middle market rental housing. And as we enter this year, we're optimistic that 2023 will be another year of strong performance. We feel we're positioned to both withstand a downturn and yet still poise to grow. That's all I have for prepared remarks. I appreciate our team's work here at NextPoint and BH for the execution.
spk10: Great. Thanks, Matt. Let's go ahead and turn it over for questions. I think we've got a couple already queued up.
spk01: At this time, I'd like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, simply press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. Our first question will come from the line of Sam Cho with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
spk07: Hi, guys. I'm on for today. Just wondering if you could share your thoughts on how, when you guys framed out the guidance, how you think about the economic outlook in the leasing environment that went into the high end and low end of the guidance range?
spk04: Yeah, I'll take it. Hey, Sam. The economic environment is largely the NOI assumption. So we think that the range of 9% to 13% is fairly tight and represents our view of the strength in middle market housing, and any weaknesses we'll see will be on the lower end. The variability that you see in the core FFO numbers are largely based on interest expense. And the wide range is due to the fact that we shocked each side by 50 basis points on the SOFR curve. And we just felt that given the volatility in the current environment that we'll have over the next quarter or so, you know, with the Fed meeting, that that was appropriate. Now, as we go, you know, forward throughout the year, we'll be able to tighten that. We expect that we will be able to tighten it and hopefully achieve the higher end.
spk07: Got it, got it. Maybe switching gears to the leasing side. On the renewals, I mean, what have the conversations been like with the residents? Are you seeing more pushback from these people, some people noting financial hardships? Just anything anecdotally that's interesting might be, I mean, I would love to hear that.
spk04: Yeah, not so much. The conversations, I think, are fairly easier than they were in the second, third quarters of last year. when you're increasing residents in the teens and even low 20s. So we're sending out notices in the mid to high single digits on the renewals today, and they're largely being absorbed without any pushback.
spk06: Got it. Thank you. You bet.
spk01: Your next question will come from the line of Michael Lewis with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.
spk09: Thank you. The same-store growth guidance obviously is very high. You know, I was just wondering if there was anything notable driving that, such as, you know, changing composition of the pool, you know, units coming back online that were maybe out of service, the impact of the unit upgrades. Or maybe a better question is how much your unit upgrade program is contributing to that same-store revenue growth.
spk04: Yeah, it's about 2 percent, Michael. from additional CapEx spend. The other, I think, strength in the numbers comes from our earn-in and the strong increases throughout the year of last year. That number has been reported through our peer group to be in the four to five range. We're just a little bit higher, just short of six. With that benefit and tailwind behind us, throw some CapEx on it and then just the dearth of affordable housing, we feel like this is appropriate.
spk09: You talked about this a little bit, but any color you could provide on January and February so far. I think you said occupancy was up to 96.3% today. I think that was 94.1% and 4.2%. So that's a really big move. Any color on, you know, what's happening there? And I think you talked about rent spreads a little bit. So we covered that.
spk04: Yeah, you bet. So the 96.3% number was the least percentage. The occupancy is still in the low 94s. So sorry if that wasn't clear. The blended numbers for Q1 so far have been pretty strong. Off a little bit from Q4, but in the mid 4% to 5% range, 4.5% to 5% range, excuse me.
spk09: I think you were, Claire. I think you did say lease. That's my fault. And then just lastly, you're probably not able to, I don't know if you're able to comment on cap rates on the two properties on their contract to be sold. You already gave a lot of details on that. But my question, I guess, is more about, it sounds like there's still strong investor demand for your assets, even though we've heard a lot about transaction markets slowing due to this wide bid-ask spread. Sounds like you're not seeing that weakness in pricing for your stuff. You know, anything you could comment on the transaction environment? I know you adjusted your cap rates and your NAV a little bit, but what are you seeing kind of on asset pricing?
spk04: Yeah, you know, I think that we can comment on the pricing for the final two. Those were struck at about a 4.9 in place. I think that we caught a little bit of the oil revival and some interest when there was probably a scarcity premium. I don't think that that number hits today. We just don't see any sort of transactions at all right now that are out there that are attractive. And the ones that are out there that are attractive often have seven, eight, nine years of in-place assumable debt that's that was put on in the lower times. And so, yeah, to the extent we see one of those, we'll check it out. But there's just not. I mean, I would say that the volumes are down, you know, 60%, 70% year over year in the first quarter. So, you know, I think that we'll see some capitulation from sellers at some point in Q2. Hopefully that comes in line with, you know, the Fed meeting and where they see interest rates going in a pivot or a pause. But I think until that time, you know, you just won't be able to price debt. You know, you won't be able to price debt. And that's what we need. We just need certainty of a range in the debt markets. And until we get that, I don't think we'll have a lot of activity.
spk06: Thanks a lot. You bet.
spk01: Your next question will come from the line of Teo Okusanya with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.
spk00: Yes. Good morning, everyone. So on your NAVs, again, I appreciate all the transparency you give on that. The 515 cap rate that you're applying, could you walk us through a little bit of, again, as you mentioned, there's not a lot of transaction activity, but how do you kind of come up with that as kind of the appropriate cap rate? Because, again, it does indicate some cap rate decompression versus the last time you provided us that number. But just curious how you get comfortable with that.
spk04: Yeah, you bet. I think it's best informed by the brokerage community, even as imperfect as it is. We're still getting BOVs on our assets. And so really it's a calculation, Tayo, of what a new buyer in the brokerage community's view is. would need in terms of a return for either levered IRR or unlevered IRR basis. And, you know, today that's probably, you know, six and a half to seven percent unlevered IRR, which equates, you know, basically with cash flow and using a reasonable terminal cap rate exit in a five-year hold equates to about a five to five, you know, five-three. And that's Yeah, maybe that's overly simplistic, but these are coming from the e-stills, the CBREs, the JLLs of the world. They're on the front lines of transactions, notwithstanding there's not many of them, but that's their view, and I tend to agree with it.
spk00: Gotcha. That's helpful. And then... From a rent control perspective, again, a lot of conversations and a lot of CBD markets about this. I mean, on the margin, maybe there's some stuff in Orlando, Florida. But just curious, in your market, anything bubbling under any potential impact it could have on your portfolio?
spk04: Not really. We think we're fairly still insulated from most of it, given the geographical footprint of the portfolio. We are monitoring the Florida legislation or the Florida proposals pretty carefully, but I think those have a long way to go and sort of an uphill battle. We also are aware of the White House's proposals and what have you. Across all of our businesses, I think the lightning stick or the lightning rod, if you will, is more focused on single-family rental right now than multi, so You know, it's something we're aware of and monitoring, but we don't see it impacting our portfolio as it sits right now.
spk06: Great. Thank you. You bet.
spk01: Your next question will come from the line of Buck Horn with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
spk08: Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. I wonder if you could talk a little bit about the CapEx budget for the coming year and also just, you know, the spending that was particularly the maintenance CapEx side of things. You guys gave great detail on kind of the rehab expenditures. But as far as maintenance capex, the numbers were up pretty big this year. And just kind of wondering what you guys are thinking about for next year or this year. I'm sorry.
spk05: Yeah, I'll take that. So, you know, as we look at this year, I think going in, Year over year, we see roughly the same in terms of the ROI generating CapEx for the interiors. We've got an assumption on all of the 38 assets, X, the two Houston deals. So we have activity at each property in every market. In terms of where we see, I think, the year over year recurring CapEx, I think we see that number being pretty stable, I think, Really, 2022 was a kind of return to normal post-COVID environment for R&M and turn costs. We've seen, as Matt mentioned, about 50% retention, so we had a little bit higher year-over-year turn costs than, I believe, 2021. We were more in the kind of 56% range for retention. I think that where we see things today, we're doing what we can to control the expense side of the equation. We're also seeing, given I think the elevation in construction costs, the kind of shut off of the supply pipeline there, given the cost of capital in the market, we are seeing a little bit more ability to negotiate price with vendors, and that's been helpful. There's a larger availability of workforce now to help us out. You know, we feel like the outlook is good. We have a healthy free cash flow number. I think that, you know, as you look at the year, we're targeting roughly 25% or 25 million in free cash flow, you know, after all of the CapEx. And we expect to use that to the extent that, you know, there's an opportunity to buy back stock, to be leveraged, et cetera. So, you know, we feel good about the outlook overall.
spk08: Okay, that's helpful. So in terms of the stable, just to clarify, when you're talking about stable recurring CapEx, does that include, I guess you guys have a category called non-recurring maintenance CapEx. Do you think that's stable as well or any other kind of non-recurring items we should be aware of?
spk05: We do. We do. We think that's stable. As Matt also mentioned, talking about acquisition and disposition activity for the year, as is kind of tradition for us. We look at, you know, the bottom 10% of the portfolio that may have some of that, you know, greater kind of deferred maintenance and non-recurring CapEx. And those are typically the assets that we'll look to, you know, to the extent that there's a bid out in the market that we like, take advantage of so as to avoid, you know, that kind of seven to 10 year deferred maintenance CapEx and the big ticket items. So we're definitely conscious of that. We think that, you know, the majority of the portfolio has been through the kind of repositioning phase and, you know, we've taken care of a lot of that deferred and we look to manage that effectively. But yeah, I think that, you know, the CapEx outlook for this year is pretty stable year over year and the ROI CapEx, you know, we continue to hit those 20% ROI targets and continue to get the premiums. I know, you know, we've seen some elevation in the cost of full interior upgrades. But I think that that really speaks to our ability to attract a higher demographic. So we're spending more, but we're, you know, in a Florida market generating a $300-plus premium on those upgrades. So, you know, the end justifies the means.
spk04: Just to add to that, the R&M CapEx increase that we're modeling for this year just the recurring number is 5.1% is our increase there.
spk08: Got it. All right, perfect. That's very helpful. One other one for me, if I can sneak it in, is just thinking through the, again, going back to the same store revenue guidance and the details you provided there, but it sounds like blended lease rates, new and renewal, you're still kind of seeing a sequential deceleration. I guess you were kind of in the low six range during the fourth quarter. It sounds like it's down to kind of between 4% and 5% through February, which is kind of now in line with what you're thinking market rent growth for the year is going to be. So I'm kind of curious, do you think that what's giving you the confidence that market rates are going to stabilize in that 4% to 5% range and not continue to decelerate with the, you know, obviously difficult year-over-year comps and potential supply pressure out there?
spk04: Yeah, that's a good question. You know, one that I think we're prepared for. The market, the sub-markets that we're in, notwithstanding the fact that the markets we're in, you're right, they do have a ton of supply. So, The guys on the team dug down a little bit better and dug into the sub markets. In our sub markets, whether it's Atlanta that has 8% inventory growth and 23,000 deliveries, there's only 286 in our sub market in Marietta and Sandy Springs. That's an example. Let's take Dallas, for example, which is historically high. you know, 36, 40,000 deliveries. You know, our submarkets are, you know, cumulatively seeing deliveries this year of, you know, 3,700. So, you know, we're largely suburban, largely affordable. You know, the recurring resident burden is still at a delta between Class A and SFR that's $400, $500, $600 away from us. So, you know, I don't think it's too much to ask or too much to underwrite, you know, that four to five, six, seven percent.
spk06: Okay. All right. Thanks, guys. You bet.
spk01: Your next question will come from the line of Michael Lewis with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.
spk09: Thanks. I jumped back in the queue because it's I was rereading our notes this morning, and I've been critical about your leverage or at least concerned about what it's going to mean for your earnings growth, and we're seeing some of that in your 2023 guidance. So maybe this isn't the right way to think about it, but more than half of your 2023 FSO is going to be coming from interest rate swaps. Fortunately, a lot of those swaps don't burn off until 2026, and you're obviously doing a lot of good work to address this drag that higher interest expense is going to be. But I guess You know, do you think it's going to be possible to grow earnings over the next handful of years, you know, when those hedges expire? And, you know, what, if anything else, beyond what you've already done, you know, are you looking at doing to kind of position yourself between now and then?
spk04: Yeah, I think it's a good question. You know, we think about it a little bit differently, and it's the way we've always thought about it. And this isn't the first, you know, run up in interest rates. That we've that we've been through and I think this is the fastest that it's been potentially in history, so We should get a little bit of the benefit of the doubt there Our view has always been that we're an internal growth and capital recycling company. We're going to fix it We're going to we're going to buy it fix it and we're going to sell it and recycle the capital and grow in a lot of that way and in our experience the best way to do that is to put on flexible interest rate or flexible debt that allows us to sell and not have a bunch of transaction or defeasance or yield maintenance costs. In our experience, having fixed rate debt like that has eroded a lot more value or as much value as we've seen elsewhere. So that's just our philosophy. And, you know, to the extent that you're in, you know, 2024, 2025, 2026, you know, a new buyer, whether it's an individual asset or the company or portfolio, you know, they will dictate their own financing. And we just think that that's valuable. That's just more valuable. It provides more flexibility, more optionality to the marketplace. And in the meantime, we're going to do our best to continue to hedge, you know, the near term interest rates, you know, the best we can.
spk06: Okay, thank you.
spk01: I will now hand the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.
spk10: Matt, yeah, I think we're good. A lot of good questions. Appreciate everybody's participation and involvement, and we'll stay in touch. Thank you. Thank you.
spk01: Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's meeting. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.
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