AB Electrolux (publ)

Good morning, everybody, and a warm welcome to Electrolux's fourth quarter 2020 results presentation. With me today, I have our CFO, Therese Friedberg, and our Head of Investor Relations, Sofie Arnias. I'd like to start by mentioning that our session is recorded and will be available on our website as an on-demand version. Let's look at our performance in 2020. The coronavirus pandemic in 2020 had a severe impact on all aspects of society, including our consumers and our business. After a weak first half with significant downturn in market demand across most regions, we have now experienced a second half and a fourth quarter with strong recoveries in most markets. We managed the situation during the year by quickly adapting to the changing market to ensure that we took the right measures at the right time. We implemented comprehensive cost mitigation actions in the first half, while our strategy to focus on strategic brands and innovative products remained strong throughout the year. Organic sales grew 3.2% to a significant degree driven by improved mix. More high-margin products were sold across all business areas. We delivered successful launches in Australia and Europe and in our other business areas, and we're pleased to receive external recognition for our innovative products in the U.S. Our three main brands, Electrox, AEG, and Frigidaire, increased share of group sales to approximately 80%, with increased value market shares in Europe for Electrox and AEG, while sales of lower margin products decreased. Online sales grew strongly globally, and aftermarket sales, which is one of the group's strategic focus areas, also increased significantly to approximately 7% of group sales. EBIT increased substantially as a consequence of proactive price and cost management, as price offset currency headwinds, in combination with the above-mentioned mix improvements. We had a very strong cash flow of nearly 9 billion Swedish kronor, and consequently the board proposes a dividend per share of eight Swedish kronor. So, looking at our performance in the fourth quarter, demand continued to be strong in all main markets as a consequence of the continued shift in consumer spending, with consumers allocating more of their household budgets to home improvement. We had strong organic sales growth of 17.5%, partially driven by high market demand across our business areas. We entered the fourth quarter with low inventory levels, which continued throughout the quarter, impacting our ability to fully meet the strong demand. The organization has worked hard and with good progress to secure supply and to increase production, but we're still not fully able to meet the strong demand. Mix continues to develop well despite these volume constraints. We had continued good traction from premium brands and innovative premium products. And as I mentioned before, we had very strong growth in aftermarket sales in all business areas. We achieved higher net prices through reduced promotions and discounts in several markets, and that, of course, reflected the lower product availability. We also actively raised prices in Latin America earlier in the year and in Q4 to offset the very strong currency admins there. Operating income improved to 2.5 billion SEC with a margin of 7.4%. All our business areas were above the 6% margin with strong organic contribution from all three levers of volume, price, and mix. The positive price development more than offset the currency headwind, and we sequentially increased investment in marketing and strategic initiatives, including strengthening our aftermarket and e-commerce capabilities in the quarter. We also, towards the end of the quarter, started experiencing higher logistics costs and particularly impacting ocean freight. With that, we had very strong operating cash flow after investments of 5 billion Swedish krona. And also, this quarter, we had very strong traction from our premium products, improving the mix. And let me give you some examples on product innovations built on deep insight in consumer needs. Our first example this quarter is our Pure Q9 cordless vacuum cleaner. And this is a product that really takes care of the two main pain points for consumers. One is The hassle of bringing out the vacuum cleaner every time you need to clean, and to fix that, we designed a beautiful product that can be out in the main room for whenever a cleaning need occurs. And of course, with fantastic suction and cleaning capabilities. As an example, this has been extremely well received in the competitive Korean market, with a 71% sales growth, a 2.1 points market share gain, and a strong 4.6 points consumer star rating, indicating that consumers are extremely satisfied with our products. Another example is our awards for consumer experience innovation in the U.S. We were top-ranked in five categories by Review.com in the U.S., which is one of the top review websites. With the Electrox and Fridaire brands, again, we had five category winners in the kitchen and laundry categories. I think one fantastic example is the Frigidaire air fry cooker that contributed to very strong profitable growth and a 10% market share in the freestanding premium cooker category, where Frigidaire previously has had a low presence. So strong contribution from consumer experience innovation. Looking into our business area performance in Q4, starting with Europe, we saw strong organic sales growth of 9%, and our innovation strategy continues to pay off with our focus on built-in kitchen and laundry, delivering higher mix and improved price indexes. We continue to gain value market share in our premium brands, AEG and Electrolux, with higher volumes, even though constraints due to the shortage of input materials impacted the volume somewhat negatively. Our strategic focus on aftermarket business delivered growth across all the business areas. EBIT was significantly improved to 1.319 billion SEC with a margin of 9.5%. We had strong organic contribution from all factors, volume, price, and mix. And we sequentially increased investments in marketing and strategic initiatives to further support the profitable growth. As mentioned, higher logistics costs started to impact while the impact from raw material was favorable and FX negative. Let's look at the European market. In the fourth quarter, overall market demand in Europe continued to be strong, and the demand increased 10% year over year. In Western Europe, demand increased by 9%, and in Eastern Europe by 12%. Oil markets grew, mainly driven by the high levels of home improvement spending, with people continuing to stay mainly at home. Consumers are using cash they usually spend for holidays and restaurants, etc., to upgrade appliances or renew old ones earlier than usual, continuing to drive very strong demand. The second wave restrictions have had a lower impact on demand as selectual retailers are more used to selling online and with a significant increase in click and collect versus the first wave. However, kitchen retailers, while they're delivering on the existing order book and continue with installations of previous orders, there are restrictions in in-person meetings that make it harder to take new orders at the time being. The overall market remained tight, with in general low inventory levels at retailers throughout the quarter. Now let's look at our business area in North America. We had very strong organic growth at 29.2%, with sales increasing across all product categories. There was a very strong market in the fourth quarter, up 20%, and this also compares to a weak fourth quarter of 2019 for us, where we had impacts from our manufacturing transition, as well as inventory management at a key customer. The positive price development continued with significantly lower promotions, particularly during the Black Friday event. And we had also here very, very strong aftermarket growth. EBIT improved significantly to 697 million SEC with a margin of 6.8%. And again, very strong contribution from all the levers of mix and price and volume. Overall, the sales of high-margin products increased significantly, as I mentioned before, specifically front control cookers as well as laundry products. Let's look at the U.S. market. During the quarter, industry shipments of core appliances in the U.S. increased by 20%. This compares to a weak Q4 in 2019, also for the industry, partially due to destocking at the large U.S. retailer. We saw strong market growth across all main categories, and macro indicators continue to be supportive, with decreasing unemployment levels very strong housing market, and the recently announced government stimuli programs impacted consumer sentiment positively towards the end of the quarter. Market demand for all major appliances, including microwave ovens and home comfort products, increased by 17%. Let's move to Latin America. Consumer demand increased in all the three main countries for us, Argentina, Brazil, and Chile. In Brazil, the government incentives were extended and consumer spending shifted due to even more continued focus on home improvement. Our understanding is that we, as well as most other players, were impacted by direct material shortages during the quarter. In Argentina, product availability increased as the economy began to stabilize, supporting sales. And Chile was also very strong compared to a weak fourth quarter in 2019, supported by government stimulus packages. So organic growth was very strong at 25%, with sales growth in all markets driven both by volume and higher net prices, partially driven by significantly lower promotion activity, but also carryover effects from earlier price increases, as well as price increases during the quarter. Also here, we continue to see strong growth in aftermarket sales. And also, online sales continue to grow very sharply in all main markets, both together with partners and direct-to-consumers. EBIT improved to 424 million SEC with a margin of 7.7%. Again, strong organic contribution and mainly from price, which more than offset currency headwinds and high inflation as well as the increased logistics cost. Investment innovation marketing increased during the quarter and further supported a profitable growth. Finally, turning to Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Africa, here we saw consumer demand overall in the region decreasing slightly. This was mainly driven by Southeast Asia, which continues to be impacted by the pandemic-triggered lockdowns. And also, consumer purchasing power was negatively impacted by the lack of tourism during the quarter. Australia, which is our largest market, remained strong with significant household consumption growth supported by government incentives. And also here, then, we saw increased home improvement spending as a consequence. Organic sales grew 9.7%, with higher sales across the region except for Southeast Asia due to the market there. The higher volumes were partially impacted by some supply constraints. Particularly in Australia, we saw significantly higher sales combined with price increases, leading to strong growth in our high-margin products, mainly in the kitchen category, where we had successful launches both in 2019 and 2020. And also here, aftermarket sales continue to grow strongly. Operating income improved to 376 million sec with a margin of 8.9%. This is mainly as a result of the strong performance in Australia, lower cost of raw material and favorable currency, while we also here were impacted by higher logistics cost. Also here, we increased investment in strategic initiatives and marketing in the quarter. This is mainly to support 2021 launches, for example, the relaunch of AEG in Australia. With that, I hand over to Therese.

Thank you, Jonas. Looking at our financial overview, I would like to comment on a few items for the fourth quarter. We have strong organic growth of 17.5%, with mixed improvements and positive price development. And volumes also increased across business areas, also related to the strong market. Gross operating income defined as net sales minus cost of goods sold improved to a margin of 22.8%, which was an increase by 4.8 percentage points year-over-year. Operating income increased significantly, mainly a result of the strong organic contribution. Let's look at the drivers behind this year-over-year change. As mentioned, we had a strong organic contribution driven by the volume price and mix in the quarter. Volumes increased, which was based on the continued good market trend. We could not fully meet the consumer demand as we entered the fourth quarter with unusually low inventories, and the supply constraints remained throughout the quarter despite high production volumes. And I would also like to remind you that in the fourth quarter in 2019, we had lower volumes in North America due to the U.S. manufacturing consolidation and the destocking at the U.S. key customer. We had positive price across all the business areas, but mainly North America and Latin America, which was driven by significantly lower promotional spend. We saw mix improvements with a positive brand mix mainly in Europe, but also from selling higher share of more premium high margin products across most business areas. It had a combined impact from raw materials and trade tariffs that was slightly positive. This was driven by lower steel and plastics costs than one year ago. and it was somewhat offset by negative indirect currency impact in Latin America, and tariffs also had a negative year-over-year impact as we sourced a larger amount of products from China to North America to meet the high market demand. Currency continued to have a negative impact on EBITs. And net cost efficiency was negative in the quarter. And this was a result of increased brand and marketing investments as well as transformation costs relating to strategic investments to become an even more consumer experience driven company. And this was after holding back on investment levels during the first half of the year. We had higher logistics costs driven by shortage of containers and increased ocean freight. We also had more express freight to keep production high and serve our customers in the best possible way. And the third reason was production inefficiencies related to running the factories with high speed and overtime costs and so forth. If we then take a look at sales and EBIT bridge for the full year. For the full year, we also saw strong organic contribution from mix and price. We had positive mix across all business areas, but particularly Europe on the back of higher growth in the premium brands and built-in kitchen and premium laundry. We had a positive price development, primarily in Latin America and North America, with a low promotional spend level, but in Latin America also increases to offset the currency, as previously mentioned. And volumes declined for the full year, mainly related to the lockdowns that we saw during the first half of the year due to the pandemic, but also related to the manufacturing consolidation in North America that continued throughout the year. We had a positive combined impact from raw materials and trade tariffs. But on the other hand, we had significant currency headwinds, which I will come back to later in the presentation. We had a negative net cost efficiency for the full year as well, with production inefficiencies and negative logistics costs related to the manufacturing consolidation in North America, but also related to the pandemic with lockdowns of production during the first half and then exceptionally high demand during the second half, which became very disruptive for production both in the first half of the year and also then in the second half of the year. And on top of that, we also had the negative freight cost as mentioned before. This was partly offset by cost mitigation actions during the first half with lower innovation and marketing spending for the full year. Let's take a deeper look at the price and mix development. The EBIT margin accretion for the group from price and mix in the quarter was 4.7 percentage points and for the full year, 3.2 percentage points. This was mainly coming from price, but also mix improvements as a result of increased sales of innovative premium products and growth in aftermarket sales. In Europe, we had a favorable mix driven by growth in built-in kitchen and laundry products under our premium brands. And in the fourth quarter, also aftermarket grew significantly. For the full year 2020, prices were fairly flat, while prices were increased in the fourth quarter related to a lower promotional discount. In North America, price developed positively as promotional discounts were reduced significantly. These were particularly visible in the fourth quarter, which is usually a highly promotional period. Favorable mixed during the year with increased sales of high-margin products and also increased aftermarket sales. In Latin America, we had a strong contribution to earnings from price as we increased prices during the year to offset the currency headwinds. And in the fourth quarter, we benefited from significantly lower promotional activity. We also had a positive mix for the full year in Latin America. In Asia Pacific and Middle Eastern Africa, we had higher prices, mainly in Australia, from price increases in the beginning of the year, but we have also increased prices in South Africa during the year. We had positive mix across most markets, but mainly in Australia based on strong product launches in 2019 and 2020. And now let's look at the currency effects. As highlighted in the EBIT bridge, currency had a negative impact of 400 million SEC on our earnings in the fourth quarter and 1.6 billion SEC for the full year. This was mainly driven by weaker currencies in Latin America, but we also had a negative currency effect in Europe related to weakening ruble, and in the fourth quarter also the British pound impacted negatively. And then looking at operating cash flow. Operating cash flow for the fourth quarter was very strong and amounted to 5.4 billion SEC, resulting in a full-year cash flow of 8.5 billion SEC. This was mainly driven by the strong earnings development in the second half, but also a favorable development of working capital and a lower level of investment. In working capital, we have some significant movements during the strong recovery in the third and fourth quarter, with high sales and production, and thus also high level of procurements. As we could not fully meet the high demand, inventory remains very low. And going forward, we expect this to normalize. As from 2021, we are revising the format for the business outlook and how we will report the sales and EBIT bridge going forward. Let me walk you through some of the different components for this. The purpose of the new format is to increase clarity and link it stronger to our value creation drivers. which as you know are driving sustainable consumer experience innovation and increasing efficiency through digitalization, automation and modularization. The organic contribution in this new format is unchanged, and the former net cost efficiency is split into three parts, with investments in consumer experience innovation and marketing. This includes, for example, cost for R&D, marketing, brand, infrastructure capability building in connectivity, CRM systems, and aftermarket sales, with a focus to drive sustainable consumer experience innovation. And the cost efficiency is efficiencies in variable and structural costs. And this then excludes raw materials, trade tariffs, labor cost inflation above 2%, and it also excludes costs for consumer experience innovation and marketing, as stated above. And this is with a focus on increasing efficiency through digitalization, automation, and modularization. And then labor cost inflation above 2% is moved into external factors. So then moving over to external factors. As a large global appliance company, we are exposed to various external factors, such as raw materials, currency, and labor cost inflation above 2%, which we have added together into one total. And price remains our main tool to mitigate these external factors. So let's look at the sales and EBIT bridge for 2020 in this new format. As you can see, the volume, price and mix is no change compared to the bridge previously shown. And we have lower cost for investments in consumer experience, innovation and marketing year over year in 2020. And this is related to the cost mitigation actions that were activated during the first half of the year. And the cost efficiency is negative year over year, which is related to the supply constraints related to the pandemic throughout the year. And we also have increased cost for the ongoing manufacturing consolidation. And this was partly offset by cost mitigation activities in the first half and continued productivity investments, but still remain negative for the full year. And headwinds from external factors. Here you see the majority is the currency headwinds, as I previously shown. But offsetting that, we have the positive raw material impact. And then going in the negative direction is higher labour cost inflation, primarily related to Latin America. And with that, I hand back over to Jonas.

Thank you very much, Therese. Then looking into the market outlook for 2021, visibility remains limited due to the ongoing pandemic. However, for the first half of 2021, we anticipate that the strong consumer demand from increased home improvement spending experienced during the second half of 2020 will remain to some extent. In addition, retail inventories are currently low in general. We therefore expect demand for the first half of 2021 to exceed normal seasonal levels across all our main markets, although capacity and component availability will likely remain constraining factors. Assuming that consumer spending patterns start to normalize by mid-year, we estimate that also market demand will start to normalize during the second half of 2021. Altogether, we expect market demand for appliances for the full year 2021 to be positive in our main markets. Looking at the specific regions, we anticipate that European market shipments will be slightly positive for the full year 2021, with growth across the key markets. We see a positive trend from the replacement market, and government stimulus programs are expected to mitigate effects from significant second virus wave lockdowns, which so far have halted recovery to some extent, in terms of consumer confidence and unemployment. In North America, demand is estimated to be positive for the full year, partly driven by a very strong housing market and favorable replacement cycle. Recently announced government stimulus programs should further support the economy and consumer sentiment, leading to a favorable demand outlook. Demand in Latin America is expected to be positive for 2021, driven by expected high demand in main markets during the first half of the year. Uncertainty remains regarding the development of the pandemic and measures taken by the government, as well as overall political and economic stability in the region. And finally, we estimate demand in the Asia-Pacific, Middle East, and Africa region to be positive for 2021. This is mainly driven by Southeast Asia, expected to rebound, however still below the 2019 level due to the lower consumer purchasing power. Many countries in Southeast Asia are heavily dependent on tourism, which has been negatively impacted by the pandemic. However, a strong and fast recovery in China is supportive also for growth in Southeast Asia. For Australia, which is our other large market for this business area, we anticipate a slight decline in 2021 demand for the full year compared to the strong 2020. Turning now to the business outlook. As Therese described earlier, we are, as from now, revising the format for how we communicate the business outlook in order to link it more strongly to the key drivers for profitable growth in our value creation strategy. In 2020, our strategic initiatives to reach the operating margin objective of at least 6% and sales growth of at least 4% generated significant improvements. For 2021, we expect a continued positive organic contribution from volume, price, and mix, driven by a favorable market demand, higher prices compensating for our raw material headwinds, And demand and mix are assumed to be positively impacted by increases in innovation and marketing investment, including a step up in digitalization of our consumer interactions. In terms of price, we have announced price increases that are being implemented early in 2021. The tight market we experienced in the second half of 2020 resulted in significantly lower promotions, mainly in the Americas. When the supply and demand situation normalizes, which given our market outlook is likely during the second half of the year, We also expect promotion levels to start to normalize. During the past three years, mixed improvements from innovation, brand, and aftermarket sales growth have in total contributed more than 3 billion SEC to operating income, realizing a very favorable return on investment. We also know that the strengthening of our main brands, Electrox, AEG, and Frigidaire, are paying off. These brands now account for approximately 80% of group net sales, compared to just over 70% three years ago. Besides brand and marketing investments, we're also strengthening our capabilities within aftermarket and e-commerce, both strategic areas for us. If we see weaker demand than what we're currently forecasting, we have, of course, the opportunity to significantly slow down these investments like we did in 2020. We estimate that cost efficiency, excluding innovation and marketing investments, will be positive in 2021. Our group target is to annually drive down the variable product cost, excluding raw materials, by 3% on like-for-like products. Main cost efficiency drivers in 2021 are continuous cost improvements and execution of our re-engineering program, particularly the improved productivity and output from our new refrigeration factory in Anderson, New York. However, this will partially be offset by increased logistics costs and transition effects as we ramp up more of our new facilities in our re-engineering program towards the latter part of the year. These estimated ramp-up costs are already included in the cost savings from the re-engineering programs that we have communicated previously, last updated in the second quarter 2020 earnings call presentation. All in all, as we plan to accelerate innovation and marketing investments, given that marketing conditions remain favorable, total net cost in 2021 is expected to increase. As a global appliance company, we are exposed to various external factors, such as raw materials, tariffs, currency, and excess labor cost inflation. For 2021, we estimate a negative headwind of 1.6 to 2 billion Swedish krona from these external factors, primarily from raw material and in particular steel. The other main factor included is translation currency that's assessed to amount to approximately minus 400 million SEK at current exchange rates. We expect to offset the raw material headwind with the price increases that we already have announced. This is not a new situation for us, and we have achieved this before. During the last two years, we have fully offset the headwind from raw material and currency with price increases. We're continuing our re-engineering investments and expect total capital expenditure to be about SEK 7 billion in 2021. Our re-engineering investment program is crucial to strengthen cost competitiveness and drive profitable growth through increased modularization and automation in the Americas and Europe. In summary, we're well positioned to create value. We continue to execute on our strategic transformation drivers in the fourth quarter. We saw strong mix improvements driven by product innovations and growth of our premium brands. We saw very strong aftermarket sales growth, and we're accelerating our strategic transformation initiatives. We're also pleased to report that the consolidation of our U.S. fridge and freezer production is progressing very well. With that, we open up for questions. Operator?

Yes, and as Jonas said, we will now open up for questions, and I can see that there are many of you that want to ask questions, so we of course want as many of you to be able to do that, so please limit it to one question at a time, and Of course, you are welcome to dial back in and enter the queue once again. So with that, operator, please go ahead.

Thank you. Just as a reminder, if you do wish to ask a question, please dial 01 on your telephone keypads now. And if you find your question is answered before it's your turn to speak, you can dial 02 to cancel. Our first question comes from the line of Andrea Silly of J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Good morning, everybody. Thank you for your time. My question is relating to the 6% margin target. You haven't communicated externally when you think you could achieve this. Is this the possibility for 2021, in your view? And has the pandemic made it easier for that target to be reached, given that maybe consumers value the home more and your products more? Or could there also be a headwind as you've had basically pulled forward demand now that maybe makes it a bit more difficult as we look into 2022 to maintain that momentum?

Yeah, I mean, obviously we have not given a specific timeline for reaching the 6%, but it is very closely tied to the re-engineering program that we have driven the last few years that we've updated you on, of course. If we look at at 2021 specifically, yeah, the strong demand, of course, is favorable. We've been very focused on taking the opportunity to further improve our mix and to really kind of, with a strong focus on innovation for consumer experiences and driving the demand towards our more premium brands and our premium high-margin product is working really well. So while the The surge in demand, of course, is a little bit temporary as people have shifted, as we talked about, shifted their spending from travel and so on to the home. That will start to materialize at some point later in the year, but we expect that improvement in mix that we're driving to continue. And in the meantime, we're continuing the strong efforts on productivity and and launching more of our newly re-engineered, modularized, and automated product and facility. So we do expect to make good progress during 2021, and I think we have a very solid plan to execute on all our strategic initiatives and to get to the 6% target within not too distant future.

Thank you very much.

Sure.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Will Turner at Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Morning, everyone. I have quite a few questions, but given that we could only ask one, I'm going to start off with a question on working capital. And what are your expectations for working capital going into 2021 and beyond? And the reason why I ask is because obviously the industry kind of got caught out in the summer with the low inventory levels. And then also with the logistic cost increases and logistic issues that we've had recently, perhaps your suppliers aren't that willing for you to push out on them in terms of payable terms in the near term. So how do you see working capital progressing over the next couple of years?

Yeah, I think we have been working very actively with our working capital during several years. And this is and has been a very high focus area for us. And then, of course, as you mentioned, we have during 2020 specifically seen some quite abnormal swings, I would say, in the working capital. And we go out of the 2020 with then unsustainably low inventory levels where we are not. fully supporting our customers to the level that we want. But this will continue to be a very high-focus area, and we will manage it through in a good way, as I believe that we have done also previously. So, yeah, I think it's not a very big worry for us going forward either.

Okay, thanks. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Johan Eliasson of Kepler Chevro. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Good morning and congratulations to a good result and above all good execution. I have a question regarding your business outlook and trying to understand the different buckets here to some extent. You say cost efficiency will be positive and it's including the re-engineering program, which I understand hasn't been changed since Q2, where you gave us some updates on how the EBIT impact would be on that one. I understood just looking at your graph, it would be around a billion positive or so into 2021 over 2022. And then the other part, obviously, which is negative, and is the investment in consumer experience and marketing. And obviously, you cut those by 601 million, we learned from the new chart your table showed us this year. And the net of these and some other factors should still be negative here. Is this 1.1 billion something from the re-engineering program significantly offset by something else in this cost efficiency bucket? And then on the marketing spend, will it be dramatically higher, obviously, than the 630 million you cut by in 2020?

Right. So I think you've read it right, which is good. And then... When we look then into 2021, of course, as you said, the reengineering program is continuing well on track. So that's a strong read on that. And the other piece that is partially offsetting the benefits of that are the very significantly higher logistics costs that we've also discussed and some other sort of inflationary costs or cost pressures on on component sourcing that's included in that metric. But yes, we do expect that to be a strong, solid, positive contribution for the year from cost efficiency. And then, of course, as we went into 2020, before the pandemic, we indicated that we would actually increase our investments in innovation and marketing and the front-end transformation that we're driving, just simply because it pays off. It pays off in acceleration of our organic growth. And as things played out with the pandemic and the constraints that we experienced, instead of increasing, we reduced the spend on innovation and marketing in 2020. So now, of course, we are eager to, and we started here in the fourth quarter, to reinvest in the transformation and growth of the business. That's working extremely well. And we expect to return a positive return on investment on those investments, of course, in our organic growth. So You know, as usual, and we've shown that I think many times in history, we retain a lot of flexibility here. So if for whatever reason the market development should vary or our return on investment not being as high, we will spend less incremental money, and we have full control over that. So for us, this is not a question of, you know, that we are, let's say, absolutely bound to increase our net spending. That's something that we choose to do because we think it provides a further boost to our profitable growth. So I think that's a little bit the balance, and that's also the reason why we don't want to give too precise guidance at this point because, of course, the market outlook is quite uncertain for 2021. But I have to say we have a positive view on it. The demand is strong. And our investment in the transformation is really paying off strongly. We talked about the $3 billion that we've added to the bottom line from mix and aftermarket sales growth and premium brand growth in the last quarters. We are very eager and keen to continue to drive that development.

Excellent. Then just on the decision on the incremental spending there, I think you previously alluded to you want to grow more. EBIT by 7% per annum, basically. Is that sort of the focus for you to make sure how these marketing spend is developing during the year that you are meeting this EBIT growth target?

Yeah, I mean, we're not tracking it on a day-to-day basis with the target of 7%. But yeah, no, we want to drive a continuous positive earning contribution from organic growth and at the same time offsetting the external headwinds that we're facing and continuing to drive that sort of positive virtuous circle that we've had. And I think the fact that we've now focused ourselves more on our own sort of premium and focused brands, Electros AG and Frigidaire, gives us much more, let's say, leverage in our control to drive profitable growth. As you know, Over the last several years, we've had impacts, for example, from losing some big private label business in the U.S. that has kind of slowed down the reported net sales growth. But underlying, we're continuing to grow, again, Electros AG and Frigidaire quite profitably over time. And, of course, we intend to continue that.

Excellent. Thanks.

Sure. Thank you.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Olof Söderholm of ABG Sundell Collier. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Hi, everyone. It's Olof with ABG. If I can come back to the investments in innovation brand and aftermarket sales, is it possible to be slightly more specific regarding the the time lag between investments in these areas and the payback, and also if you are expecting the same pace of EBIT support in 2021 as you have realized over the last three years, i.e.

around $1 billion per year. I don't think it's right, again, given the uncertainties we're facing to give a specific guidance on what we expect there. But what I would say is that we expect it to be a positive net contribution. Now, so the ROI timing varies quite substantially between the different drivers. So One part of it is, of course, just increased brand and advertising and marketing spend, which has a very strong and fast return on investment. The investment in innovation has a longer lead time, but there, of course, we have also increased that investment quite substantially over the last five years or so. So that should pay off on a continuous basis, not just the investments we're making this year, but the ones we've made in the last several years. And that includes... the transformation programs that we've announced, which again, it's not just about automation, it's also about new and innovative products. So yeah, no, I definitely see a solid positive return on investment. And I think we can point back to 2020 and see that throughout this very, very volatile and challenging year, we actually delivered positive mix in price throughout the year. Also in the depths of the pandemic crisis in the second quarter, we delivered positive mix. So we are seeing that it works very well. Quarter to quarter, there will be ups and downs. So we try to stay away from being too precise on those predictions. But on a full-year basis and on a month-year basis, we see that as a very positive contribution.

Excellent. Thank you very much for that.

Sure.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Gustav Heggis of SEB. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Thank you, operator. Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I'll limit it to one then. I'm a You mentioned that there's some uncertainty still in the market, of course, while being rather positive teams on the first half. But just in the light of your current financial situation, you have a financial net cash position now. And I recognize that you raised dividend here, but still also beyond that and a bit elevated CapEx this year. It should be increasingly favorable going into the second half of the year if markets don't sort of collapse. So I guess my question is, is there some plans for larger M&A or something that you sort of keep that financial flexibility for? Or is there a scenario where one could see some additional shareholder returns, you think, if things sort of stabilize here? What's your thinking here?

Yeah, no, I think that's well stated. You know, I think our first priority is to continue to reinvest, to grow the business. As you mentioned, we're raising our CapEx spend in the year, which we think would be very good for our shareholders. Secondly, we also are looking continuously at, you know, value-creative M&A in emerging markets and and selectively looking at the adjacent categories as well. So we'll continue to do that. However, having said both of those things, to your point, our balance sheet is very, very strong. And together with our board, we are, during the year, going to look through our strategic priorities and develop a solid updated strategic plan based on this new market environment and the strong balance sheet that we have. And we'll see what comes out of that. That's ultimately, of course, in the hands of the board. But I think it's definitely clear to say that we have a stronger balance sheet than we will need.

Great.

Thanks. Sure.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Henrik Christensen of Carnegie. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Yes, good morning. Question on inventory. You've brought down inventory levels by about $3 billion year-on-year. I guess there's a bit of FX in that number as well, but could you give any indication of how that has impacted profitability this year? And then related to that, do you expect normalized inventory levels? What sort of effects do you see that in 2021 on profitability? Thank you.

Yeah, thanks. The lower inventory levels are a negative clearly for us, and not the lower inventory levels in themselves, but the fact that we're not able to fully meet market demand. And that results in some shortages here and there, and also not being able to fully meet our consumers' requests and needs. So Hopefully now we will continue to produce at a very high level like we have in the fourth quarter. We do see constraints, but that's at a very high level needs to be said. It's not that we're seeing constraints at a sort of low output level. It's really a max output level that we're having right now. Still for a number of months and possibly quarters out from here, we expect to continue to remain constrained. And hopefully then towards the second half of the year, we'll be able to work our way up to normal service level. I want to talk more about our service level than our inventory level per se, because the inventory level is a consequence of meeting and having the right service level to our consumers and customers.

There's no underproduction this year, but then when you overproduce next year to restock the inventory, that could be possibly contributing to profitability in 2020.

Temporarily, there are, of course, these effects, assuming that you can produce that at a regular rate, so to speak. The challenge that we're facing right now is that we're running significant overtime with very high marginal costs, let's say. That equation depends a little bit about if we can do it and during normal working hours or if it's an overtime and express freight type situation.

Perfect. Thank you.

Sure.

Thanks. Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Cookman of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Good morning. Thanks so much for taking my question. I wanted to ask about the ability to pass through those external inflation factors through price, whether you anticipate any timing differences between the movements in the two sides, and what kind of response you've had from customers so far to the price increases that you announced, and kind of how much of that is already covered by the already announced price increases, please.

Yeah, yeah. So obviously these headwinds that we're facing are very much facing the entire industry. So I don't think we're in any type of unfavorable situation versus our peers here. And in these types of situations, we have no choice but to pass on that higher cost. And we have been very proactive in doing that. So with the price increases that we've already announced, and the proactive management of sales promotion and so on, we are continuously offsetting these higher headwinds. Of course, that's not something that any of us like, neither our customers nor ourselves, but I have to say there's also an understanding given that this is not just impacting us and not just our industry. This is something that many different consumer goods industries are facing. So, There is, of course, not a positive reaction, but there's understanding.

Got it. Thank you. And if I may just follow up on this. In terms of the mix of the external factors, could you give us a rough idea of the split that you anticipate between raw materials, logistics, and anything else?

Yeah. What we classify as external factors is not the logistics part. That's part of our net cost efficiency. Okay. and maybe that's a little bit confusing, but that's just the way we track it because it's so hard to pull apart what's inflation and what's other things. So the logistic cost pressure is part of our net cost efficiency and is pulling that down a little bit. And in the then external factors, it's mainly pure raw materials and the biggest part of that is steel. And we also have our currency impact in that. And the most significant impact this year, the way currencies are currently trading, is on translation of our foreign denominated earnings, which we then gave the 400 million negative guidance on in terms of EBIT impact.

Great. Thank you very much. Sure.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Lucy Carrier of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead to your line. It's open.

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking my question. I have actually a follow-up on the first question. I was wondering if you have any indication, either internal studies that you're doing or what you've been observing, in terms of how much of, I would say, your replacement demand has been kind of preempted in 2020 and how you think about that for 2021, 2022, and beyond. Do you have any numbers or indication on this that could help us?

We do try to make those estimates, of course, but it is very, very difficult to pull apart the different elements, because on the one hand, we have, I think, a pull-forward effect, to your point, where consumers are, to some extent, making renovations now that they would have done later. I would say, though, that there are other positive factors that I think tend to offset that and also over time offset that. And that is that people are using their appliances much more intensively as people work from home more. And that is a trend I think we all see will continue also after the pandemic. So people will spend more time using their appliances, which means that they will replace them at a higher rate also going forward. And hopefully, and that's what we're seeing right now, as they spend more time with their appliances, they also want them to be good and to deliver the experiences that they're looking for. And that's where our innovation focus and our brand focus really pays off. And then the final factor, which I think is not insignificant, and that is that we have now kind of cycled through, in terms of the replacement cycle, the trough for the bottom that we saw driven by the global financial crisis in the 2008 to 10 timeframe. So, so there, there was in the past couple of years, there's been a little bit of drag from that. And now we're entering a more favorable sort of overall replacement cycle. So I'm, you know, even though from quarter to quarter and month to month, it's difficult to predict here because of the, you know, really unpredictable effects of the pandemic. But I think the underlying drivers are actually quite beneficial to the industry.

Thank you. And just if I may quickly follow up on ROMAT, because you've mentioned steel quite a lot, but you haven't really mentioned potential headwind from plastics, where we see pricing also kind of going up. So I just wanted to understand in which magnitude that was also included in your guidance or not.

No, there is some plastic headwind, but actually not – the biggest part of it is – It's steel and some unparalleled plastics as well, but that's the smaller part. Thank you. Sure, you're welcome.

Thank you. And our final question will come from the line of Björn Ernason of Danske Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Thank you. Yes, a lot of focus on steel. increased spending on marketing, but I see that as a little bit more of a positive signal, as that signals confidence. But what is more negative, and I would like to get back to the dividend decision by the board, I'm not sure whether it's senior management or the board, but at least the decision taken by the board sends a quite negative signal, giving that you have a super strong balance sheet and you're just hiking the dividend just slightly. So if you can give us some indication what you will go through when you will talk about those strategic priorities later in the year.

I see your point. I would probably not argue that it's a negative signal to raise the dividend by 15% or whatever it is. The Your point, though, is correct that we have a very strong balance sheet and that as we go forward here and look at what the best value-creating use of that balance sheet is, even though we are increasing our investments in CapEx and transformation of the company, even though we are looking at some additive M&A opportunities, your point is still right that we will look at... other types of value distribution to our shareholders. Now, the best way to do that is, you know, at least in the estimation of our board, is not by raising or lowering the annual regular dividend too sharply. It's better to have that at a good payout ratio, so we have a payout ratio in 2020 of, I think, 58%. So, So that's obviously a good payout ratio, and we expect to continue to keep that at a high level. And then sort of one-off adjustments to the balance sheet structure will have to be done through other means.

Yeah, but I've looked at you for many years, and I've seen both buybacks and redemptions, et cetera, et cetera. So there are tools.

Yeah, no, no, that's my point.

I agree. Let's see what happens. Thank you.

Let's see what happens. Thank you. Yes. Thank you. All right. So thank you for all those questions and good interaction. And, you know, just wrapping up the call here, I have to repeat again that I'm extremely proud to see how we've, as an organization, navigated this very challenging year and really being able to deliver a strong focus on health and safety while growing the business profitably. To me, it confirms that we have the right strategy and, importantly, the right culture in place, which allows us to act quickly on challenges and also capitalize on opportunities quickly. Our innovation focus, together with our reengineering initiatives, are resulting in more efficient manufacturing with great new products, and that's going to set us up for very strong long-term competitiveness. I'm confident that Electros remains well-positioned to create value both short-term and long-term. Thank you so much, and look forward to seeing you soon.